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A New ETF To Play Global Demand Of Natural Resources

As the demand for natural resources has jumped and is expected to continue to do so due to increased wealth in developing nations and a growing global population, State Street recently launched the SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF (GNR) to enable investors to gain access to the sector.

The new ETF will track the S&P Global Natural Resources Index, which is an index comprised of 90 of the largest publicly traded companies, based on market capitalization, in global natural resources and commodities businesses that meet certain investibility requirements .    Companies that are included in global natural resources include those which are engaged in agriculture, integrated oil and gas, oil and gas drilling, oil and gas exploration and exploration, oil and gas refining, coal and consumable fuels, diversified metals and mining, steel, aluminum, gold and other precious metals. 

As one can see, it is clear that as developing nations continue to grow and per-capita income in these regions of the world grows, consumption and demand for energy and agriculture products and ways to produce these commodities will increase. 

In regards to GNR, the index includes primarily developed market stocks with float-adjusted market capitalization of at least $1 billion.  Furthermore, exposure to US based companies is limited to 40% of the index and exposure to emerging markets is limited to 15% of the index.  Currently, the US constitutes nearly 30% of the index, Canada nearly 13%, the United Kingdom 11% and Australia 8%. 

As for sector allocations, the index's top three allocations include 28.63% of its assets to integrated oil and gas, 17.48% to chemicals and 15.65% to diversified metals and mining boasting Exxon Mobil (XOM: 61.01 0.00 0.00%), BHP Billiton (BHP: 73.54 0.00 0.00%) and Potash Corp Of Saskatchewan Inc (POT: 148.44 0.00 0.00%) as its top three holdings.   

Lastly, GNR will carry an expense ratio of 0.40% and will be in direct competition with the iShares S&P North American Natural Resources Sector Index Fund (IGE: 33.7901 0.00 0.00%), which is more concentrated on integrated oil and gas companies than GNR and has a heavier concentration of US based holdings.

Momentum Stock: Innophos Holdings, Inc.

Innophos Holdings, Inc. (IPHS: 29.35 0.00 0.00%) recently touched its multi-year high at $31.98 after reporting a solid 17% earnings surprise in early August. With a next-year estimate calling for 19% growth, the longer-term picture looks good too for this Zacks #1 rank stock.

Company Description

Innophos Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces a line of specialty phosphate products for food, pharmaceutical and industrial markets with a market cap of $632 million.

The last look at Innophos came in early August when the company reported solid Q2 results that easily beat expectations.

Second-Quarter Results

Revenue for the period was up 10% from last year to $184 million. Earnings also came in strong at 79 cents, 18% ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate. In spite of one 44% miss two quarters ago, the company now has an average earnings surprise of 18% over the last four quarters.

Innophos's largest segment, Specialty Phosphates, saw volumes jump 21% from last year, although revenue was only up 1% as prices remained depressed from peak levels last year.

The company also saw its margins expand after a reset of some of its supply contracts reset in early 2010.

Paying Down Debt

Innophos's balance sheet is also on the upswing off the good quarter, with its total debt down $56 million from last year. Its debt-to-equity ratio of 60% is well ahead of its peer average of 103%.

Estimates

Estimates took a nice little jump off the good quarter, with the current year adding 18 cents to $2.83. The next-year estimate is up 36 cents in the same time to $3.35, a 19% growth projection.

Valuation

In spite of the solid upward momentum, IPHS offers a good helping of value, trading with a forward P/E of 10.5X compared to its peer average of 14.4X.

2-Year Chart

On the chart, IPHS recently came within striking distance of the 52-week high just shy of $32. The stochastic below the chart is signaling that shares are trading well away from over-bought territory. Look for support from the trend line and short-term low at $29 on any weakness. Take a look below.

Growth & Income Stock: Yum! Brands Inc

Yum! Brands Inc (YUM: 45.52 0.00 0.00%) recently hit an all-time high at $46.25. It also announced on September 14 that it is raising its dividend 19% to $1.00 per share.

Yum! Brands has more than 37,000 fast-food restaurants in 110 countries. Its brands include KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, Long John Silver's, and A&W. It has a market cap of $21.4 billion.

Overseas Sales Drive Growth

Yum reported second quarter earnings per share of $0.58, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4 cents. Earnings grew 17% year-over-year.

Overall sales increased just 4% from the second quarter of 2009. U.S. sales declined 10% over the same period due to a decline in store count, but same-store-sales were essentially flat. Pizza Hut saw the best growth at 8%, which helped offset a 7% decrease at KFC.

The main driver of growth came from China as revenues there increased 22%. China accounted for 34% of total sales in the second quarter, and that number is only expected to climb as Yum rapidly expands its KFC and Pizza Hut brands in the country. The company has opened 155 stores in China year-to-date.

Overall sales for the Yum Restaurants International division – which excludes operations in China – experienced 6% growth.

The company kept its expenses in check as the operating margin improved from 15.9% to 16.4% in the quarter.

Going Forward

Management expects 2010 EPS between $2.39 and $2.43. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is above guidance at $2.49, representing 14.5% annual growth. Yum has had an incredible streak of EPS surprises, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last 20 quarters.

YUM: Yum! Brands Inc

Rewarding Shareholders

Yum announced recently that it is raising its annual dividend 19% to $1.00 per share. Yum began paying a dividend in 2004 and has raised it at an average annual clip of 33%. The current dividend payout ratio is 35%, within its target of 35-40%.

Management has also spent $247 million year-to-date repurchasing shares.

Fundamentals

Yum trades at 18.3x 2010 estimates, which is justified by its higher growth rates. Yum does carry quiet a bit of debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.1. This debt has not become too burdensome however as Yum continues to produce strong cash flow.

The stock has a dividend yield of 1.8%. It was recently upgraded to a Zacks #2 Rank (buy).

Singapore And Thailand – Two Asian Economies Flying Under The Radar

You know about China, India, and maybe even Korea, but there are two other Asian economies making waves in the South China Sea.

I'm talking about Singapore and Thailand.

While the U.S. economy would be really lucky to poke along at a 3% annualized rate this year and next, the fast-growing countries on the other side of the globe are ripping higher.

Regional analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News survey said they see Singapore expanding at a record pace this year of 14.9% due to improving demand for the city-state's exports. That's up from an estimate of 9% published three months ago. Singapore's economy relies on trade, finance and tourism. Its central bank said the surge would be led by a 29% expansion of manufacturing.

The two new casino complexes that were opened earlier in the year also have given the economy a boost. They were built at a cost of $10 billion in an effort to expand the Singapore's stature as a destination rather than just a waypoint for global travelers.

The M Hotel in Singapore's business district once struggled to fill its rooms on weekends as visiting executives tended to leave by Friday, according to The China Post. Now it enjoys 90%-plus occupancy rate.

"I'm looking out of my window at the new skyline. What has developed over the last five years has been amazing," Hanspeter Brummer, chief executive for Asia at Swiss private bank BSI, told the newspaper from his office, which overlooks the new Marina Bay financial district.

The new business district was built on reclaimed land around the mouth of the Singapore River, and comprises not just office skyscrapers but also shops, condos, theaters and the Marina Bay Sands, which was built by Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS: 31.58 0.00 0.00%). The district sports the world's biggest Ferris wheel, restaurants that feature celebrity chefs, and the world's first Formula One circuit where races can run at night.

Singapore felt it had to develop into a regional hub because it was losing its low-wage factory jobs to China, Malaysia and Vietnam. But it also went upscale with manufacturing, and a retooled factory base now accounts for a quarter of the economy.

The bottom line is that this is where some of the most exciting growth is occurring in the world. It's not an over-hyped sideshow – it's real, and I hope you are participating.

At least check out the iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund (EWS: 12.62 0.00 0.00%), if you haven't already.

The South Asian Steel Giant

Singapore obviously isn't the only South Asian economy worth a look.

Over the weekend I ran across a very interesting article in the British newspaper The Sunday Sun that said a mothballed blast furnace in the English seaside town of Redcar could be up and running by Christmas because it has been purchased by a Thai steel company that has big plans for its production.

The blast furnace, which had been the biggest employer in the city, went quiet in February and 1,600 workers lost their jobs. The Teesside Steelworks had been launched in 1917, and its steel was used to build bridges, warships and skyscrapers throughout the Commonwealth. The company was purchased by Dutch-British conglomerate Corus Group Ltd. in 1999, and then sold to India-based Tata Steel Ltd. in 2007.

Tata decided to close the plant as part of a global consolidation, but it was rescued when Sahaviriya Steel Industries PLC (SSI) of Bangkok bought it for $490 million (320 million pounds). A union leader told the Sunday Sun that SSI planned to make a long-term commitment to the plant, and would help train a new generation of workers to begin careers in the industry.

SSI – the largest steel producer in Thailand – is expected to take over the Redcar and South Bank coke ovens, power generation facilities, the Redcar blast furnace and the nearby Lackenby steel-making facilities, as well as a bulk terminal at the Redcar wharf.

"We've known Teesside Cast Products for some time and we're very satisfied with the quality of the product and have a high regard for the skilled workforce," said SSI President Win Viriyaprapaikit.

This kind of deal epitomizes the reality of the growth that is occurring in Thailand. It's not just a paper-trading, stock-market phenomenon, but real managers building real global businesses brick by brick. SSI makes up just about 1% of the holdings of iShares MSCI Thailand Index Fund (THD: 57.20 0.00 0.00%), but it's emblematic of the country's potential as an industrial leader.

Stock Picks For Thursday 9 September: Motorola, NetApp, JA Solar Holdings, Banner Corporation, Ciena Corporation, Hemispherx BioPharma, Royale Energy, Generex Biotechnology, Cell Therapeutics

JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (JASO: 7.24 0.00 0.00%) broke out $6.95 to new 52 week high with a huge volume above daily average. Technicaly chart shows the stock is still in a very strong bull market with MACD on top of signal line and 50 day moving average on top of 200 day moving average, so we should see the stock keep going strong for a while. I'll be watching JASO on Thursday for a follow through move. I am buying the stock once it breaks Wednesday's high of $7.35. JASO will move fast, so watch it closely.

 

NetApp Inc. (NTAP: 46.43 0.00 0.00%) broke out to record highs today on heavy volume confirmation indicating that this breakout is more likely to be real. However at this point we may need to pull back and retest $44.89 to reset the overbought conditions and provide some room to develop a new trend up. Keep watching the stock.

 

Banner Corporation (BANR: 2.31 0.00 0.00%) has been under a buying pressure in the last few days, and overall the stock still looks healthy. The technical indicators look good at this stage, as seen in the chart above. The RSI indicator sloping up and crossing the 50 mark and MACD crossover indicates a change in trend from the downswing, which is bullish. I expect the shares to test prior highs in the $2.33 area in the coming days.

 

Shares of Ciena Corporation (CIEN: 14.12 0.00 0.00%) rose 5.14 percent to $14.12 with 12.50 Million of shares traded after the company reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss, helped by higher services revenue, but forecast weak fourth-quarter revenue as the communications equipment maker remained cautious in the face of continuing macroeconomic uncertainties. Excluding items, the company lost just 9 cents a share. Revenue more than doubled to $389.7 million, helped mainly by the acquisition of the metro ethernet networks business of Nortel Networks Corp. Analysts on an average had expected a loss of 33 cents a share on revenue of $386.3 million. Looking at the technical chart the stock has crossed its major resistance line at $14.03 ( 200 MA ) with strong volume. The MACD indicator is above its signal line and is indicating further strength. The -DI has cut below the +DI line, this implies that uptrend will most likely continue. CIEN is a fast moving stock, so keep a close eye on the stock.

Other stocks to watch :

Motorola, Inc. (MOT: 7.98 0.00 0.00%) – Next Resistance Level for Motorola (MOT) is $8.02Hemispherx BioPharma, Inc (AMEX:HEB) – I like the stock as long as it remains above $.50.

Royale Energy, Inc. (ROYL: 1.96 0.00 0.00%) – I own the stock and like it for the long term.

Generex Biotechnology Corporation (GNBT: 0.4135 0.00 0.00%) – The stock is pulling back to the 20 day moving average after the recent spike higher. If you like GNBT, this would be a great area to buy.

Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTIC: 0.383 0.00 0.00%) – The stock closed below the resiatnce level again, this is something worth watching. It is still a bearish signal. The next support level is 0.35 and 0.39 is the major resistance. I am now being cautious until we close back over $.40.

New 52-week High stocks

ZGEN – ZymoGenetics, Inc.
JASO – JA Solar Holdings C
LVS – LAS VEGAS SANDS CP
NTAP – NetApp Inc
MO – ALTRIA GROUP
ATML – Atmel Corporation
DTV – Directv A
SLW – Silver Wheaton
GMCR – Green Mountain Coffee
NZ – Netezza Corp
NFLX – Netflix, Inc.
MCD – MCDONALDS CORP
ARMH – ARM Holdings, plc
BVF – BIOVAIL CORPORATION
INTU – Intuit Inc.
VOD – Vodafone Gp Plc
AKAM – Akamai Technologies
AMT – AMERICAN TOWER CORP
CTXS – Citrix Systems, Inc.
BKC – BURGER KING HOLDING
ROVI – Macrovision Corporation
VHC – PASW Inc.
YUM – TRICON GLOBAL REST INC
WIN – Windstream Corp
ARUN – Aruba Networks Inc
MIPS – MIPS Technologies
UNP – UNION PACIFIC CORP
RHT – Red Hat, Inc.
TIBX – TIBCO Software, Inc.
FFIV – F5 Networks, Inc.
ANV – Allied Nevada Gold
JKS – JINKOSOLAR HOLDINGS
ENTR – Entropic Communication
CCI – Crown Castle International
VRSN – VeriSign, Inc.
AGU – AGRIUM INC
PAY – Verifone
PCLN – priceline.com Incorporation
APKT – Acme Packet Inc
HLF – HERBALIFE LTD
VRX – I C N PHARMACEUTICAL
SBAC – SBA Communications
QSFT – Quest Software, Inc.
ADTN – ADTRAN, Inc.
NSU – NEVSUN RESOURCES LTD
TSCO – Tractor Supply Company
LNT – Alliant Energy Corp
AIZ – ASSURANT INC

New 52-week Low stocks

HRB – BLOCK H & R INC
SLAB – Silicon Laboratories
ZRAN – Zoran Corporation
BRKS – Brooks Automation
ASIA – Asiainfo Linkage
CHBT – China-Biotics Inc
SYUT – VORSATECH VENTURES INC

Unusual Volume detected

UNDT – Universal Detection Technology
QMIN – Kentucky Energy, Inc.
ZGEN – ZymoGenetics, Inc.
LDSR – LANDSTAR INC
MFLI – BRAVADA International Ltd
IJJP – IJJ Corp.
TUNE – Microtune Inc
GCKO – GeckoSystems International Corporation
EQLB – EQ Labs, Inc.
ULU – ULURU Inc
NRGY – INERGY LP
ANWM – Anywhere MD, Inc.
HDY – Hyperdynamics Corp 1
CHJHF – China Telecom CP H
NTWK – NetSol International
REE -Rare Element Res Ltd Ordinary S
SOPW – Solar Power Inc
LGAL – Legal Access Technologies Inc.
EDIG – E Digital Corp
VKNG – Viking Systems, Inc.
SBCF – Seacoast Banking Co
HTM – US Geothermal Inc

The following list show stocks whose share price crossed above its 50-day moving average.

DELL – Dell Inc
S – Sprint Corp FON Group
NBR – Nabors Industries Inc
LUV – SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO
BA – BOEING CO
UTX – UNITED TECHNOLOGIES
AIG – AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL
CMA – COMERICA INC
AMX – America Movil SA
SFI – ISTAR FINANCIAL INC
ENTG – Entegris, Inc.
JCG – J CREW GROUP INC
K – KELLOGG CO
BBVA – BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA
TMX – TELEFONOS DE MEXICO
AFFY – Affymax Inc
TAP – ADOLPH COORS CO
CHNG – Coventure International
BC – BRUNSWICK CORP
ATW – ATWOOD OCEANICS
SMOD – SMART MODULAR TEC
ES – EnergySolutions Inc

Disclaimer : This is not an investment advisory, and should not be used to make investment decisions. Information in AC Investor Blog is often opinionated and should be considered for information purposes only. No stock exchange anywhere has approved or disapproved of the information contained herein. There is no express or implied solicitation to buy or sell securities. The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples. Don't consider buying or selling any stock without conducting your own due diligence.

Singapore Stock Market Update For Thursday 09 September

Morning Highlights

Singapore stocks edged higher, with STI up 12.92 points to open at 3,024.34. Investors are taking their cue from gains on Wall Street after the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicated the U.S. economic expansion was continuing, albeit "with widespread signs of a deceleration compared with preceding periods."

Watch Out For Economic News Today:

  1. U.S July Trade Balance
  2. U.S Initial Jobless Claims

Corporate Announcements:

  1. OCBC's Great Eastern Holdings Ltd. has incorporated a new wholly-owned company, I Great Capital Sdn Bhd .

News Updates:

  1. U.S. stocks post modest gains early Wednesday; Portuguese bond sale allays Europe concern
  2. U.S. stocks end higher, recouping some of previous day's losses; Dow rises 46 points
  3. Fed's Beige Book reports slowing growth as Obama outlines tax measures
  4. Irish government will split Anglo Irish Bank in two
  5. Canadian central bank raises key interest rate to 1%; loonie posts gain vs. U.S. dollar
  6. BP: multiple firms and work teams to blame for Gulf of Mexico oil spill
  7. The Australian competition commission Wednesday rejected undertakings proposed by National Australia Bank as part of its attempt to buy AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd . National Australia Bank was still on the rise even as its bid for AXA Asia-Pacific was blocked by Australian competition regulators.

Quick Picks: Here is a quick pick screen that we have designed to pick out potential stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. These are measured with emphasis on larger changes in price and volume.

Bullish Stocks (Singapore)

 

Symbol

Name

Entry

SL

TSL

TP

Remarks

1 FCRT Frasers Centerpoint Trust 1.51 1.40 1.62
2 SPGP Super Group Ltd 1.11 1.00 1.22
3 GENH.SI Genting Hong Kong Ltd 0.47 0.395 0.545  

Stock Prices last updated at 9:00 (Singapore Time)

Are “Black Swans” Not So Black Anymore?

John Hempton at Bronte Capital recently blogged about the puzzling condition of rising gold prices and falling  bond yields. Indeed, we have seen rising commodity prices in the form of the CRB Index (pictured below) and the CRB Raw Materials Index, which is largely composed of nom-traded raw materials, is only 3% from its all-time highs.

Normally, bond yields rise as inflationary expectations rise. But instead of rising yields, we have seen falling bond yields – which is typically associated with deflationary episodes instead of rising inflationary expectations.

Rising tail risk
I interpret these conditions as Mr. Market being worried about both inflation and deflation. Moreover, when we see stories like Titan Capital Joins Black Swan's Taleb in Raising Bets on Crash, it seems to me that Mr. Market is also worried about rising tail risk, i.e. extreme events.

This may be an indication that tail risk is becoming a crowded trade.

Is this a time to sell tail risk volatility?