I never make predictions because no one can foretell the future and no one has a crystal ball. However, after last week's market action and economic developments and looking at both technical and fundamental indicators, I believe that S&P 850 is a reasonable probability in the weeks and months ahead.
The fun could start as early as Monday, July 19th, as the International Monetary Fund made a surprise move on Saturday and walked away from talks with Hungary regarding the IMF 20 Billion emergency loan that the IMF has been offering that country. A shade of Greece contagion is very likely to rattle not only Hungarian assets but possibly global markets, as well, as Hungary will not have access to this loan without further commitment to cut their deficits which are 80% of GDP.
Beyond this surprise news, last week's news was mostly dismal, at best, and so let's take a closer look at why S&P 850 might be a reasonable destination as well as factors that might be in play to change our current course.
Looking at My Screens
Two of our three portfolios are currently profitable for the year while the S&P is now down -4.6% Year to Date. Overall, the downtrend remains in place and we remain in the "Red Flag Flying" mode, expecting lower prices ahead. However, this manic market has proven again and again its ability to turn on a dime and so we will maintain a dynamic posture in response to events as they develop.
Last Friday's decline took us from much overbought to much oversold and so based on mean reversion philosophy, we could see a short term bounce. Furthermore, short term technical sentiment indicators reflect moderate pessimism which would also support the thesis for a rally. However, these short term conditions will very likely be offset by a very impressive line up of negatives that would support the "risk off" scenario.
Here's a summary of negatives for the market going forward:
Negative Technical Indicators:
S&P 500 below its 200 Day Moving Average
S&P 500 below its 50 Day Moving Average
Only 40% of all NYSE stocks on a "buy" signal
Less than 40% of NYSE stocks above their 200 Day Moving Average
Less than 33% of NYSE stocks above their 50 Day Moving Average
S&P 500 on a Point and Figure "sell" signal
Negative Fundamental Indicators:
Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to 5 from 20
Philly Fed dropped from 8 to 5.1
ECRI weekly index dropped to -9.8
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence dropped to 66.5 from 76.
The View from 35,000 Feet
Storm clouds gather on all fronts.
The ECRI, Economic Research Cycle Institute weekly index fell from -9.1 to -9.8 last week and now stands just 0.2% from the all important reading of -10. Without fail over the last 40 years, a -10 reading has accurately forecast an impending recession and it appears that all important benchmark could be breached next week.
The decline in the Philly Fed and Empire State Manufacturing Indexes points to an ongoing and abrupt slowdown in manufacturing which has been one of the really bright spots in the nascent recovery and indicates the possibility of slower growth ahead.
The ongoing credit contraction continues and is now in its fifteenth straight month and the largest in more than 60 years. Of course declining credit eventually results in slower business activity and that was reflected in this week's -0.5% decline in retail sales.
Furthermore, the decline in the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was truly startling as declines of 9 points like this are very rare and usually tied to cataclysmic events, which of course we didn't see last week. Previous declines of this magnitude were associated with events like the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Hurricane Katrina and the New York attacks of 9/11. Only once has a decline of this magnitude occurred without a coincident major event and that was in 1980 at the beginning of the 1980-1982 recession; therefore it's quite likely that consumers are hunkering down for tougher times ahead.
Bond prices are now priced for Armageddon as the 2 Year Treasury yield is at record low levels, below even those seen in late 2008 at the bottom of the financial meltdown that began with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in October of that year.
The U.S. Senate continues boycotting the extension of long term unemployment benefits which means that some 2 million people have lost their benefits in recent weeks with more to come as each week passes which will result in lower spending levels by U.S. consumers and a further hit to GDP.
This week the results of the European banks' "stress tests" will be made public and depending upon the outcome could be a positive or negative for global markets.
What It All Means
It's easy to conclude from the fundamentals that the economy is rapidly slowing and in increasing danger of experiencing a double dip recession. As we've previously discussed, this slowdown was expected later in the year but now seems to be upon us as we move into the lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer.
Technically speaking, the S&P 500 was unable to successfully challenge either its 50 Day or 200 Day Moving Average this week and this would point to lower prices ahead. Many technicians say that bottoms tend to be found 20-25% below the 50 Day Moving Average which would put the downside target for the S&P 500 at 825-850.
I mentioned earlier that a couple of factors could offset further declines in stock prices and those are the possibility of a good earnings season and further action on the part of the Federal Reserve to jumpstart the lagging recovery.
This week more than 130 companies are set to report earnings and positive outlooks could help bolster stock prices.
Also, The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee minutes released this week point to new worries on the part of the Fed regarding deflation and downgrades in their forecasts for economic growth and improvement in unemployment. While they had previously been talking about withdrawing stimulus and tightening monetary policy, now they're saying, they "would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably."
In plain English, the FOMC is once again considering more "quantitative easing" and this, too, could lead to a short term rally in stock prices going forward.
The Week Ahead
This is another huge week for economic and earnings reports that will surely be market movers. Major economic reports will focus on the housing industry and employment while earnings will come hot and heavy from the banking, technology, consumer and manufacturing sectors.
Economic Reports:
Monday: July National Homebuilders Index
Tuesday: June Building Permits, June Housing Starts
Thursday: Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims
Earnings:
Monday: IBM (IBM: 123.71 -6.08 -4.68%), Haliburton (HAL: 29.59 +0.42 +1.44%), Delta Airlines (DAL: 11.4381 +0.0581 +0.51%)
Tuesday: Goldman Sachs (GS: 144.00 -1.68 -1.15%), Apple (AAPL: 242.8886 -2.6914 -1.10%), Yahoo (YHOO: 14.94 -0.16 -1.06%)
Wednesday: Coca Cola (KO: 52.72 +0.45 +0.86%), Morgan Stanley (MS: 24.4292 -0.3508 -1.42%), US Bancorp (USB: 22.54 -0.45 -1.96%), Wells Fargo (WFC: 25.50 -0.52 -2.00%), Starbucks (SBUX: 25.09 -0.40 -1.57%)
Thursday: Caterpillar (CAT: 64.41 -0.39 -0.60%), UPS (UPS: 59.39 -1.07 -1.77%), American Express (AXP: 40.92 -0.66 -1.59%), Microsoft (MSFT: 24.78 -0.45 -1.78%)
Friday: Ford (NYSE:F), McDonalds (NYSE:MCD)
Sector Spotlight:
Leaders: VIX, Agriculture, Wireless/Broadband
Laggards: China, Silver, Banks
Disclosure: PSQ, SH, RWM, SKF, SPY Put Option
