Mutual Funds: Top 5 Real Estate Funds
U.S. Stock Markets Down After Fitch Downgraded Sovereign Debt Of Spain
After sinking to a nine-month low on Tuesday, the equity markets soared on Wednesday and Thursday along with the Euro, but faded Friday afternoon after the Fitch rating service downgraded the sovereign debt of Spain from AAA to AA+. All in all, due to the dip in the US Dollar, this was a pretty good week for the Bulls, but an absolute disaster for the month of May - one of the all-time worst.
With all the tumult caused by the currency market's hot money ebb and flow, what came to mind this week is the expression that the capital market is a game that plays people; not the reverse. Equity traders who are active participants are close to being worn out.
Overrun as it is by the dominant financial services industry, the market, we know, is also mostly about marketing.
Last week, the random noise along with the hype orchestrated by vested interests reached a crescendo. Don't count me among them, but there are some who now believe the worst has past and it will be blue skies ahead for the next couple years.
At such times, which happen all too frequently, I tune out Financial Entertainment Television. It's just not constructive to be listening to lobbyists tell us, for instance, that BP's (BP36.52 0.00 0.00%) Gulf of Mexico oil spill is only 5,000 barrels a day when experts say that, before this crisis is effectively managed with a relief well, possibly 100 to 125 days after the disaster, the total water area affected and essentially destroyed is going to be the size of Florida or Georgia or Michigan or Illinois. As I see it, the economy of the entire southern United States is going to be fractured, with far greater consequences than hurricane Katrina, as bad as that was.
As too much is at stake with respect to the future of global society, it's time the people of the world woke up to the phony messages being delivered to them.
Unlike the mainstream media, which needs a positive spin to retain its audience; traders are forced to deal with reality. So, in my case, I just tune out the media and stick to watching prices.
Year-to-date, except for a few markets - Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand in southeast Asia - equity market prices worldwide are way down. Some, like China (-19.0%), Taiwan (-10.9%) and France (-10.7%), are down quite substantially this year. Trillions of dollars have been lost and those losses will not be easily recovered.
These year-to-date numbers don't lie.
Let's look at the details of what transpired in capital markets this week. Obviously, it wasn't all bad. Europe, for instance, had a pretty good week, although that might not last as Fitch stuck a fork into it after equity markets closed in Europe on Friday.
The following charts and a table that I created from scratch shows (i) the immediate $5.6 billion impact on the share prices of five large European-based banks following news that Fitch had downgraded Spain, (ii) the time of information was received by the vested interests who control the equity market (12:34pm ET), (iii) followed by 14 minutes of free-fall. After spin control kicked in at exactly 12:48pm, a substantial bounce occurred in these prices; but by the end of the day - the final 30 minutes of trading at least - Mr. Market had thrown in the towel and these share prices sank again.
Here is the intra-day chart of Spain's Banco Santander (STD 9.83 0.00 0.00%), which had a relatively mild loss (-1.33%) between 12:34pm and 12:44pm, before recovering, for a while at least.
In the same 14 minutes, note the action of Spain's Banco Bilbao (BVDA 0.00 N/A N/A).
Clearly, as the week came to a close, most traders were thinking about the Rain on Spain, although My Fair Lady didn't come to mind.
But the Euro (FXE 122.03 0.00 0.00%) was though. Note the time of the collapse was 12:34pm ET.
Here's the chart for Gold (GLD 119.91 0.00 0.00%), which normally drops with the drop in the Euro, i.e., falls with the US Dollar. But, at times like this, Gold and Dollars are a safe-haven. See the price and volume spike at 12:34pm ET
There are many reasons why the European banks hit the skids as soon as the Fitch downgrade of Spain was announced. The immediate impact is that these banks are the major holders of Spain's bonds, which got hammered in price. Then as bond prices fall, interest rates go up, so all that real estate loans and asset-backed investment paper the banks are holding are going to be less valuable. The longer-term impact is that Fitch is reporting a concern over the economic future of Spain, which means less business for the banks in that country.
When you start to look at the capital market as a system like any in nature, where prices ebb and flow like ocean tides, impacted by wind and waves, and so forth, all inter-related, you'll try to synchronize your mind and your breathing. And, when prices get as volatile as they are today, you have to learn how to relax and not let emotion get in the way of good decision-making.
Easier said than done. The instant that Fitch released their decision on Spain, your positions either gained or lost, some in the extreme, and that's tough for most people to handle.
Stock Picks : Apple, Cell Therapeutics, OceanFreight, Generex Biotechnology
Stocks that have a Bullish Engulfing pattern at the end of their daily chart
TAP - ADOLPH COORS CO
BJ - BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB
REGN - Regeneron Pharmaceutical
VLTR - VOLTERRA SEMICONDUCTOR
CLH - Clean Harbors, Inc.
COGT - COGENT INC
FICO - Fair Isaac Inc
GFIG - GFI GROUP INC
PLAB - Photronics, Inc.
ART - ARTIO GLOBAL INVEST
BKH - BLACK HILLS CORP
FRED - Fred's, Inc.
VSI - Vitamin Shoppe
WFC - WELLS FARGO &
NOK - NOKIA CORP
MO - ALTRIA GROUP
HPQ - HEWLETT-PACKARD CO
HD - HOME DEPOT INC
EBAY - eBay Inc.
HBAN - Huntington Bancshar
PM - Philip Morris International
WIN - Windstream Corp
KFT - KRAFT FOODS INC
CBS - CBS Cl B
ONNN - ON Semiconductor Co
CAT - Caterpillar Inc
SPLS - Staples, Inc
EK - EASTMAN KODAK CO
ABX - BARRICK GOLD CORP
CIEN - CIENA Corporation
MAS - Masco Corporation
APA - APACHE CORP
MMM - 3M, MINNESOTA MNG
BTU - PEABODY ENERGY CORP
EWY - WEBS South Korea
HCBK - Hudson City Bancorp.
BA - BOEING CO
AVP - AVON PRODUCTS INC
SPN - SUPERIOR ENERGY SVC
DNDN - Dendreon Corporation
WM - WASTE MANAGEMENT INC
RCL - ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRU
CMI - CUMMINS ENGINE CO INC
KMB - KIMBERLY CLARK CORP
ATHR - ATHEROS COMMUN INC
LEAP - LEAP WIRELESS INTL
RHT - Red Hat, Inc.
FRX - FOREST LABORATORIES
AXL - American Axle
ROST - Ross Stores, Inc.
TDW - TIDEWATER INC
NTRS - Northern Trust Corp
WY - WEYERHAEUSER CO
MF - MF Global Hld Ltd
ADCT - ADC Telecommunications
HAS - HASBRO INC
AMCC - Applied Micro Circuits
MTW - MANITOWOC CO INC
CNI - CANADIAN NATL RAIL CO
SOLF - Solarfun Power Hold
MON - Monsanto Co
TPHM - Thomas Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
NTAP - NetApp Inc
OOAG - OMDA Oil and Gas Inc
JSDA - Jones Soda Co
TLAN - Talent Alliance Inc
OII - OCEANEERING INTL INC
BCON - Beacon Power Corp
ZIOP - EASYWEB INC
CXMSF - Cemex Sa Da Cv Cpo
CIE - Cobalt International
EEB - Claymore BNY BRIC
DGIT - DG FastChannel
FSII - FSI International
FWTC - Freshwater Technolo
ESPH - Ecosphere Technolog
EHMI - SEARCHHELP INC
PNRC - Premier Nursing Pro
AEGY - Alternative Energy
JAS - JO-ANN STORES INC
TTEC - TeleTech Holdings
GTXI - GTX INC
BFR - BANCO FRANCES DEL R
DTSL - Delivery Technology
HNP - HUANENG POWER INTL INC
TLPH - Teliphone Corp
EDMC - Education Management
BYOC - Reel Estate Services
STXXQ - SOUTH TEXAS OIL COMP
LBSV - Liberty Silver Corp
PBEC - Pacific Blue Energy
ABCP - Ambase Corp
EGHT - 8X8 Inc
HIT - HITACHI LTD
AVGCF - Avion Resources Corp
SGTPY - Surgutneftegaz Pref
AMLM - American Lithium M
HEPI - HEALTH ENHANCEMENT
UNGS - Adventure Energy Inc
FEWP - Celestial Delights
PAYI - Pay88 Inc
JAVO - Javo Beverage Co Inc
UVE - Universal Insurance
APNT - Nano Proprietary Inc
IMYN - Immunosyn Corp
NAUH - Camden Learning Corp
APLL - Apolo Gold Inc
BCUFF - Bell Copper Corp
CHAG - Chancellor Group Inc
CJBK - Monmouth Community
GEECF - Life Energy Technol
CTCC - City Capital Corp
WTKN - WellTek Inc
AMCRY - Amcor Limited
VDC - VANGUARD CONSUM STA
CRMY - Carmel Energy Inc
CMM - China Mass Media
Are Mining Stocks And The General Stock Market Rising Or DecliningTogether?
Since our previous essay dedicated to the general stock market and its influence on the PM sector generated a lot of positive feedback we decided to provide you with a follow-up. However, before jumping straight into the chart analysis, let's focus on the big picture.
McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), prestigious consulting firm, believes India is on the verge of the second-greatest urban migration the world has ever seen. In their new report India's Urban Awakening, MGI says India's urban population could swell to 590 million-nearly twice the size of the United States-by 2030. India would need to build a city the size of Chicago every year for the next 20 years in order to create enough commercial/residential space to meet the needs of its growing population.
MGI says India will have "68 cities with populations of more than 1 million, 13 cities with more than 4 million people and 6 mega cities with populations of 10 million or more."
MGI says the Indian economy is expected to be five times greater by 2030, with urban centers being the key driver of this growth. It projects India's labor force to increase by 270 million-70 percent from urban jobs. This new labor force will also be relatively young compared to other BRIC countries.
While these numbers are amazing, perhaps the most important statistic for us is the projected growth of India's middle class. MGI estimates that India will have 91 million middle class households by 2030, that's more than a 300 percent increase from the 22 million they have today.
Historically, gold has been a preferred form of savings in India as well as in China and many of the other Asian countries. With incomes rising as more people enter the middle class, and with the numbers of the wealthy class increasing, it is more than likely that some of this new found wealth will flow into gold.
While these great, historic changes will take place in the far future, let's take a look at what is in store in the more immediate future. Let's begin this week's technical part with the analysis of the S&P 500 Index. Let's start with the long-term (SPY: 109.369 -1.391 -1.26%) ETF chart
On the very long-term chart above, we see very little change from last week. The implications which need to be re-emphasized here are the support levels which have been reached and the significance of the spike in volume based on weekly closing prices. Thursday's closing level, slightly more than 110, is above the 50-week moving average and also above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This is in line with what we expected and reported previously.
This week we see a rebound in the long-term chart and this move caused the SPY/ETF to close above the declining black line seen above which is the multi-year resistance level. This line has now become a support level. We also see that the close is above the 200-day moving average line in the range of 110. Confirmation that the bottom is in is seen by a spike in volume as well as the low RSI level. Volume levels have not been declining recently (taking weeks into account), similar to what was seen in a 2008 pattern. This indicates that further declines are unlikely at least in the short run. To the contrary, we expect the general stock market to move higher and precious metals to do the same based on the technical signals visible in the above chart.
The short-term chart provides us with more timing details. This week we saw huge volatility as the general stock market tested (and verified) its support levels and finally closed above the 200-day moving average. This level is decisively above the rising support lines, regardless of which is selected.
The recent move up was not on huge volume nor were the volume levels extremely low. This trend is common in the early stages of a rally and therefore is not taken to be a bearish sign. This is also confirmed by the RSI level. In short, higher prices for the general stock market appear likely, a bullish short-term sign for precious metals.
Therefore, the general stock market moved up this week as expected and there are signs the rally will continue. Support levels are in place and volume levels indicated some strength in the recent upswing. Furthermore, we do not see some of the negative signs common in past bearish markets. In short, analyses of this week's charts indicate a bullish period ahead for both the general stock market and the PM sectors.
Speaking of the PM sector and stocks, let's take a look at the long-term chart of the HUI Index.
With respect to the precious metal sector this week, the HUI long-term chart last week seemed close to a bottom. It had approached its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and the RSI had moved to a probable low. This suggestion was that a bottom had been reached and a turnaround was likely.
This is exactly what we've seen this week. The fact that it is clearly seen in the long-term chart implies that the turnaround was quite sizable. In the past, when the HUI index moved sharply below its 50-day moving average and the RSI moved below its lower channel, a sharp turnaround with vengeance began a significant rally.
Perhaps this is what we've seen in the past week. The RSI rebounded and the HUI index rose sharply higher after bottoming below the 50-day moving average. If history repeats itself, as it so often does, the HUI index chart suggests that higher prices will be seen in the coming weeks.
One of our indicators (featured below) appears to confirm this point.
The above chart features our SP Gold Stock Extreme Indicator, which - according to its name - signals tops or bottoms in the mining stocks. This week we've seen this indicator move quickly below its lower dashed line and reversed. This is what we've seen in the past several months when the prices were bottoming, so this is clearly a bullish sign.
Summing up, many tools indicate that the mining stocks are to move higher from here, perhaps just like they did in November 2009. Still, not every part of the precious metals sector is showing extraordinary strength, which suggests caution. For now, we remain cautiously bullish on the mining stocks.
Forbes Comparing BP With Goldman Makes Me More Than Outraged
When a major mainstream media like Forbes compares BP with Goldman Sachs and recommends investors to buy Goldman Sachs (GS: 144.26 -0.69 -0.48%) stocks, you know the world is in total moral hazard and deserved to be doomed as Marc Faber has always been saying.
Since Forbes is a financial publication, I will refute based on the investment thesis first. Granted both stocks are high risk plays right now, but I'd venture to say compared to Goldman, BP (BP: 42.95 -2.43 -5.35%) is obviously oversold and a victim of media hype and Whitehouse populist approach.
This conclusion is based on BP dividend yield (currently close to 7%), a strong average annual compound rate of return of 17.9% since 1977 vs. 10.7% from S&P, the growth prospect of crude oil and low forward P/E ratio of 5.64.
The in-depth Chart of Day story of BP on May 6 by Bloomberg (Chart below) should more than confirm my conclusion about BP stocks from a technical point of view.
Throughout its history, Goldman has been shortchanging retail investors by abusing its market position, which by the way, is put in place partly by the taxpayers' money. Sure, there were a few "official investigations" throughout the years, but basically went nowhere most likely due to the Vampire Squid's deep pocket, massive legal team, and far reaching influential tentacles into many related government agencies.
Now, the SEC finally brought a civil suit holding Goldman responsible for misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages as the U.S. housing market was beginning to falter. I will not go into the detail here of how Goldman knowingly contribute to the subprime crisis, which is the closet point of origin of the financial crisis leading to the current "Great Recession" and the current 9.5% jobless rate.
This is not to excuse BP for the Gulf oil spill mess. The environmental and economic impact has yet to be fully assessed. But one thing people seem to have chosen to ignore is that BP has paid and will be paying for a long time to come for this mistake ($930 million to date). But where is Goldman on this??
Almost 1,300 vessels are now involved in the response effort. Other oil companies are also helping BP in the Gulf including the world's top supermajor–ExxonMobil (XOM: 60.46 -1.00 -1.63%) –by providing personnel and vessels. The entire oil industry will bear the brunt of the public outrage and is already working together to improve safety and engineering process and procedure to prevent any future similar incidents.
In contrast, posturing aside, Goldman is yet to even formally acknowledge any misdeed. The entire financial industry, instead of looking into self reform, is fighting tooth and nail with Washington on the proposed financial reform. Many are talking about setting up offshore shops to avoid the regulatory "burden".
So excuse me for being more than outraged when Forbes dares to compare BP with Goldman, and the biased-agenda-motivated moral hazard the mainstream media have been brain-washing upon the public.
7 Stocks To Know: Johnson & Johnson, Prudential, Apple, Borders,Ener1, Mentor Graphics, BP
Prudential (PUK: 15.61 -0.45 -2.80%) is in discussions with AIG (AIG: 35.38 -1.08 -2.96%) to cut the price of its Asian unit AIA as it tries to iron out the $35.5 billion acquisition. Prudential shareholders are displeased as the company's CEO is asking for $21 billion, the largest-ever rights offer for an acquisition. Prudential's market value is 13.7 billion pounds ($20 billion).
Borders (BGP: 1.97 -0.17 -7.94%) shares are down more than 6% in early Friday trading after the book retailer reported Thursday it lost $64.1 million, or $1.07 a share, compared with a loss of $86 million, or $1.44 a share, a year ago. Revenue declined to $547.2 million from $650.2 million.
Apple (AAPL: 256.88 +3.53 +1.39%) shares are up nearly 2% in early Friday trading, coinciding with the first day of sale of the company's tablet computer iPad outside the U.S. today. The iPad is now available in Australia, Canada, Japan and six European countries. When iPad debut in the U.S. in April, Apple sold one million of the device in less than a month.
Ener1 (HEV: 3.48 +0.28 +8.75%) soared 21% to $3.88 after the company's EnerDel unit, a U.S. manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries for electric cars, announced it is setting up a joint venture with China's largest auto-parts maker, Wanxiang Group, to sell batteries to Wanxiang's Chinese customers.
Mentor Graphics (MENT: 9.18 +0.13 +1.44%) said it would miss the average analyst estimate of a 4-cent per share second-quarter profit, excluding some items. The company said it would lose 5 cents a share in the worst case scenario, and at best, break even during the quarter. Its shares are up more than 2% today.
BP (BP: 42.95 -2.43 -5.35%) resumed pumping thousands of barrels of mud into a damaged oil well in an effort to stop the Gulf oil spill that has become the largest in U.S. history. BP said today that the effort may take up to 48 hours, and that the "response" costs so far is $930 million.
The U.S. Commerce Department figures showed Friday that consumer spending for April came in unchanged compared to March. Analysts had expected spending to rise 0.3% instead. This marks the weakest reading on spending since September of 2009.
The Week Ahead
A slew of economic indicators are on tap for next week, ranging from manufacturing data to the closely watched monthly unemployment report which is due on Friday.
Europe: Ryanair and Ahold report
In the corporate sector Ryanair and Ahold report quarterly results while British Airways and EasyJet share May traffic with investors. On the economic front, euro zone and U.K. PMI data for May are released.
Asia: Australia GDP, rate decision
After being one of the most aggressive in withdrawing monetary stimulus, Australia's central bank is expected to keep its rates steady as European debt worries roil global markets. Meanwhile, China's PMI figures are on tap.
Australian Market Pares Early Gains
Energy and material stocks are also off their higher levels due to strong resistance, while financials are finding some support.
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index, which rose to 4,343.6 after a positive start, is currently trading at 4,306.5, up 1.1 points over its previous close. The broader All Ordinaries index is up 5.2 points at 4,331, well off the day's high of 4,363.2.
On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell to a 10-month low of 4,176 in early trading before ending down 11 points or 0.26% at 4,305, its lowest closing since Aug 21,2009, while the All Ordinaries index settled at 4,325.8 with a loss of 16.6 points or 0.38%.
Among key bank stocks, ANZ Bank is up 2.2%, Commonwealth Bank of Australia is up with a gain of 1.2%, National Australia Bank is gaining about 1.6% and Westpac Banking Corporation is up 1%.
Among top miners, BHP Billiton is gaining 1.4% and Rio Tinto is up 1.6%, while Newcrest Mining has pared its early gains and is up just marginally at present.
Bluescope Steel, Fortescue Metals and Incitec Pivot are down with modest losses, while Orica is down 1.75%. Lihir Gold is up marginally.
In the energy space, Woodside Petroleum is gaining nearly a percent, while Santos and Oil Search are up marginally. Origin Energy is down with a loss of 1.5%.
Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd announced that a takeover approach made last week came from Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd. The company said the board is considering the proposal and has asked shareholders not to take any action at this stage. The stock is currently up over 2% on its previous closing price.
Meanwhile, private hospitals operator and pathology provider Healthscope Ltd has announced that it will allow a private equity consortium to conduct due diligence on the company subject to the parties agreeing on a confidentiality agreement. Healthscope said last week it had received a takeover proposal of A$5.75 per share, which valued the company at about A$1.82 billion, from a private equity consortium. The proposal was up from an earlier bid of A$5.50 a share from the same consortium. Healthscope shares are trading flat.
In the currency market, the Australian dollar opened higher and was quoting at US$0.8315-US$0.8317 in early trades, up 0.51% from Friday's close of US$0.8272-US$0.8275. The Australian dollar is currently trading at 0.8198 to the U.S. dollar.
Among other markets in the Asia-Pacific region, New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan are trading notably higher, while Shanghai, Malaysia, Japan and South Korea are trading weak. Markets across the region ended on a weak note on Friday.
On Wall Street, stocks ended notably higher on Friday, driven by bargain hunting that took place after the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 dropped to sharply lower levels in early trading. The major averages all closed firmly higher after another volatile outing, bouncing off of the three-month closing lows set on Thursday.
The Dow advanced by 125.4 points or 1.3% to 10,193.4, the Nasdaq jumped 25 points or 1.1% to 2,229 and the S&P 500 moved up 16.1 points or 1.5% to 1,087.7.
Major European markets closed modestly lower on Friday, although well off their worst levels. The French CAC 40 index and the U.K. FTSE 100 index edged down by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, while the German DAX index ended 0.7% down.
Crude oil prices fell on Friday on concerns over the European debt crisis, the sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery and the strengthening U.S. dollar. Light, sweet crude for July delivery settled 76 cents down at US$70.04 a barrel.