k

Gallup: U.S. Underemployment Rose To 20.3% In March

Reports from the Labor Department Friday showed companies in the U.S. created more jobs in March than at any time in the past three years, showing the recovery is broadening and becoming more entrenched.

Payrolls rose by 162,000 workers, the most gain since March 2007, though the increase included 48,000 temporary Census workers. Unemployment remains at 9.7% for a third month.

Record Long-term Unemployed
Nevertheless, behind the rosy headlines, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics also give a grim side of the employment picture.

The number of long-term unemployed (longer than 27 weeks) in March rose to more than 6.5 million. The percentage of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more also rose to a record 44.1% of all jobless.

The Labor Dept. figures also showed average earnings per hour dropped last month and the number of people working part-time because they couldn't find full-time work increased.

A Rise in The Underemployed
The underemployment rate — which includes the part-timers and people who want work but have given up looking - - increased to 16.9% from 16.8%, based on government data, seasonally adjusted.

However, the latest Gallup Daily tracking finds that 20.3% of the U.S. workforce was underemployed in March– a slight uptick from the relatively flat January and February numbers. Gallup employment data are not seasonally adjusted. (See chart)


Gallup concludes its findings as follows:

As unemployed Americans find part-time, temporary, and seasonal work, the official unemployment rate could decline. However, this does not necessarily mean more Americans are working at their desired capacity. It will continue to be important to track underemployment — to shed light on the true state of the U.S. workforce.

Meaningful Job Creation = More Budget Deficits
So what can be done?

Congress has extended unemployment benefits for longer periods to help workers cope. A jobs bill Congress recently passed gives employers a tax credit for hiring workers unemployed for two months or more.

Such credits don't actually create jobs. A new infrastructure program, for example, would certainly help the 24.9% unemployed Americans in the construction sector.

Unfortunately, any meaningful job creation programs would require more deficit spending on a new stimulus bill, which is politically impossible in an election year.

So, we are pretty much in the predicament as described by Secretary Geithner in a recent inteview at NBC's "Today" show,

"[The unemployment rate] is still terribly high and is going to stay unacceptably high for a very long time,"

Overly Optimistic Markets?
Meanwhile, markets have turned increasingly bullish on economic growth sending the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to their highest closes in 18 months.

Although the course of the economy and markets is generally heading towards the positive direction, the grim labor market outlook could come into play sooner rather than later, among some other downside risk factors.  From that perspective, stocks may have been fully priced or even gotten ahead of themselves.

Lunar Phases And The U.S. Stock Market: Here’s The Track Record

Yes, it's that time again, time to again check into Lunar Cycles to see if they can give any indication as to what the near term might offer.

[Every time I do this I shudder because it just feeds into the view that technical analysis is about as worthwhile as astrology. So consider this more as an objective exercise than crystal ball fortune telling.]

Here's the track record since about this time last year. You make your own decision:

If this were the racetrack or Las Vegas then I'd take these odds. The statistics begin May 26, 2009 (S&P 500 at 910.33) and end last Tuesday, March 30, the last Full Moon (S&P 500 at 1173.27) during which time the market gained 28.8%. The table above indicates that nearly all the gain occurred during the period between Full waning to New Moon. If you had owned the S&P Index (SPY) after a Full Moon and sold it after a New Moon then you'd wind up with a 27.60% gain (ignoring compounding).

True, the market gained when the moon was waxing to Full but more than half 11 cycles it declined. In 8 of 10 times the moon was waning to New the market gained. With a full moon last week, the next couple of weeks to April 14 should, statistically, result in a higher market (to about 1210 at the average gain with an upside possibility of 1245).

If the market isn't bewildering enough, this makes it just a bit more exciting.

Three Tech ETFs In Focus As Apple Releases IPad

The much anticipated Apple iPad tablet computer was released today across the country. The device, which has been hailed as revolutionary by many and useless by a few, could have a huge impact on the technology and consumer electronics sectors. If successful, the product could open up a whole new market for content producers who have been struggling to increase sales in recent years. Many firms have already jumped onto the iPad bandwagon, including Electronic Arts (which will offer five games for the iPad's release) and the New York Times (which will offer an app to readers in order to view its content on the device). Regardless of the product's effect on content producers, the product will unquestionably put significant pressure on Barnes and Noble and their nook device as well as Amazon's Kindle which is cost competitive with the new Apple product.

While the iPad is still in its infancy, it could have a large impact on both the technology sector as well as Apple's stock price. In fact, Trefis, a company specializing in allocating stock prices to specific products in a company's lineup, has already given 4.3% of their projected value of Apple (AAPL) to the iPad product, projecting 4 million units sold in 2010.

We're generally hesitant to speculate on the impact of company-specific developments on more broad-based ETFs, but the launch of the iPad has the potential to reshape the industry. "This beautiful new touch-screen device from Apple has the potential to change portable computing profoundly, and to challenge the primacy of the laptop," writes Walter Mossberg. As initial sales reports and consumer reviews continue to trickle out, look for the following technology ETFs to be in focus in coming months:

iShares S&P Global Technology Index Fund ( 58.62 0.00 0.00%)

IXN tracks the S&P Global Information Technology Sector Index which follows global technology companies. The fund holds 118 companies and Apple makes up 7.7% of the total portfolio. The fund is up nearly 4% in 2010 and charges 0.48% for an expense ratio.

Select Sector Technology SPDR ( 23.26 0.00 0.00%)

XLK allocates nearly 9.3% of its total assets to Apple while holding positions in 84 other firms. It focuses on mega cap companies and has a weighted average market cap of $117 billion. The fund is up marginally in 2010, posting a gain of just 0.6%. However, the fund charges one of the lowest expense ratios in the category at only 0.21%.

iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index Fund ( 59.10 0.00 0.00%)

IYW focuses on technology companies in the United States by tracking the Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index. The fund allocates just over 10.4% to Apple and it holds 168 other firms in its portfolio. IYW is evenly spread out between technology hardware (55.5%) and computer service firms (43%). The fund is up 1.5% this year and charges an expense ratio of 0.48%.

Two Big Issues With Research In Motion

With the number of opinions being expressed on major companies like Research in Motion ( 69.83 0.00 0.00%) and Apple ( 240.60 0.00 0.00%), it can get awfully overwhelming to try and understand from a high level what the situation is. This has especially been the case with RIM in the last few days when they released so called "mixed results" - which basically means that they disappointed the street, but not really.

It's fairly easy to identify the things people agree on - RIM has a solid balance sheet, no debt, $2.9 billion in cash, strong growth in revenues (up 18% yoy, though still not enough for Wall Street), shrinking gross margins (now at 45.7%) and reductions in average selling prices (currently $311/unit). A brief look at any analyst report will give you that information. However, there is less certainty on other more contentious issues - as I see it, there are two big issues in the balance, and the one that comes to dominate in the next few years will determine where RIM goes from here.

Issue (Negative): Competitive pressure in retail consumer space

80% of RIM's revenues still come from new device shipments, meaning that it still very dependent on new sales growth, as opposed to revenues from post-sale services, which make up only 16% of revenues. It's this sales growth that many analysts feel will be compromised by the additional competitive pressures that BlackBerrys are facing in the retail marketplace from Apple's iPhones and other Samsung and Motorola ( 7.23 0.00 0.00%) smartphones that operate on Google's ( 563.54 0.00 0.00%) Android platform. RIM's competitors are deemed to be better at providing a better user experience as the focus shifts away from smartphones providing just email access (where BlackBerry dominates) to a more complete experience including applications, browsing and connectivity (where BlackBerry loses out).

As an analyst from Sandford Bernstein put it - RIM can expect "margin pressure as BlackBerry gets more and more into a mass-market role with vanishing product differentiation and eroding brand premium."

So in the mass-market RIM's products are expected to lose market share to its new rivals especially as the focus of the user experience shifts.

Issue (Positive): The enterprise market and love from carriers

It is well-established that RIM is a market leader in the enterprise space thanks to its superior security capabilities that are necessary in an environment which is less cost sensitive but also more functionally demanding. The enterprise market loves the BlackBerry for its superior email handling capabilities which are more important to that space than other "toppings" like applications and browsing. While the security features of other smartphones are likely improving, the BlackBerry still holds its own there. Its leadership in the enterprise space is the trump card that RIM holds and is using to enter new emerging markets. RIM is currently dependent on the North American market but the real growth lies elsewhere as smartphone penetration levels start to taper off in North America. With ongoing expansion efforts in China and Indonesia, you could start to see new engines of growth for RIM and this might have been reflected in the company's higher than expected guidance for subsequent quarters.

Another area that is frequently overlooked is the relationship that RIM has with its carriers. RIM provides a lot more value to carriers than just being a handset provider. This point was well made in a feature in the Canadian Business magazine. RIM actually operates data-processing centres which look at all the information sent via BlackBerrys, in the process removing potential threats and providing a level of security that is hard to match. At the same time, the system also helps carriers manage its traffic and uses compression technologies which allow more information to be carried over the same network from the carrier - the importance of this value-add cannot be underestimated when usage is becoming increasingly data intensive and clogging most networks. One more plus point that ties carriers to RIM is the carrier's need to differentiate its product offerings from other competitors. It's hard for them to do that with the Apple's iPhone which is the same across all providers since there is only one model. But with the BlackBerry, RIM actually provides each carrier with something unique through its different models and hence caters to their needs. With the carriers doing a lot of the marketing for the handsets, this relationship counts for a lot.

Watching how the cookie crumbles

Ultimately, RIM's prospects depend on which of these issues end up being more important down the road. The big question is whether RIM's dominance in the enterprise market, combined with its strong carrier relationships and emerging market growth is enough to outweigh or offset the market share it might lose in the North American retail space to competitive pressures from other smartphone providers.

Top 5 ETF Performers For The Week Ended 4 April 2010

Broad market indices enjoyed another up week in the context of a decent jobs report, a surprise decision to lift the ban on offshore drilling, and no new damaging news markets haven't already digested.  Emerging markets were especially strong, as well as commodities in the face of a declining US dollar for the week.  There has been some press this week about funds pouring into high yield debt and companies sitting on cash hoards that are likely to start pumping out dividends which begs the question as to what this might portend for high yield ETFs.  Is this the end of the hot sector rally and a move into income?  It's tough to say but for now, a rising tide lifts all ships and the only investors feeling the pain of late should really be the shorts.

For the week ended 4/4/2010, here's a snapshot of some of the best performing ETFs of both the traditional and leveraged sort:

Non-Leveraged ETFs

First Trust ISE Global Platinum Index (PLTM) - Up 7% - This is a relatively new ETF which is the only one that actually seeks the match the return of the underlying Platinum metal itself.  There are some great fundamentals for the metal, as well as Palladium's sister ETF ( 50.89 0.00 0.00%) as outlined further in this Platinum ETF Review.  Essentially, even though the US hit a pretty severe economic headwind, it was pretty much just a hiccup for much of the developing world.  These metals are key raw materials for many industrial uses there, especially for consumption in catalytic converters in cheap cars that are being mass produced as the standard of living in much of the world improves rapidly.

iShares Silver Trust ( 17.77 0.00 0.00%) - Up 7% - Silver has also been hot, very much so in the context of a run on precious metals due to a weakening US Dollar partially, as well as the notion that silver actually has some industrial utility, more so than gold.  While both metals have taken a breather thus far this year, over the prior 1 year period, USV is up 29% vs. gold's 18% via the ETF ( 112.49 0.00 0.00%).  For the year 2009, SLV doubled the return of GLD at 66% vs. 32%.

Market Vectors Coal ETF ( 39.37 0.00 0.00%) - Up 7% - Also benefiting from the weak dollar trend this week, coal was strong last week.  While some investors may have posited that the administration's announcement that the ban on offshore drilling should be lifted, the reality is, the estimated reserves are actually a drop in the bucket and will take more than a decade to develop.  As such, coal continues to perform strongly in the face of a mildly improving economy and no immediate threat from other energy sources.

Leveraged ETFs

Direxion 3X Emerging Markets (142.80 0.00 0.00%) - Up 16% - What else can one say about emerging markets other than, that's where the money's going.  While investors in emerging markets suffered more during the crash in late 2008 into 2009, the rebound in the returns of bourses outside the West has been spectacular.  While the year to date returns don't look that impressive at 7.5% vs. 5.7% for the S&P500, the 1 year return for EDC is 274% vs. 40% for the S&P500.  As with all leveraged ETFs, there are some deceiving characteristics for investors who think they're getting triple the return of an index over time.  They're not, unless they trade daily.  There are daily rebalanced instruments, so over time, if there's any volatility both up and down and not a pure sustained trend up or down, over long periods of time you're very likely to actually lose money.  That's why I've been shorting leveraged ETFs on both sides (not EDC specifically) which has actually been quite profitable.  Just keep this in mind if going long any leveraged ETF below as well.

Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares ( 41.88 0.00 0.00%) - Up 12% - This leveraged energy ETF had a strong showing for the week as well, in spite of the oil drilling announcement which many would have thought would have shoved some downward pressure on the price of oil.  Not that case last week. Oil prices are pushing on a recent barrier with a possible breakout from the $70-$85 range we've seen for months.  A mild economic recovery has analysts projecting that industrial output will be rising substantially in the coming months, driving energy prices up.

Disclosure: No long position in any ETFs mentioned above.  Paired short position on ERX/ERY as outlined above in EDC section above.

The Federal Reserve’s Last Hurrah

During the 1990s, inflationary Federal Reserve policy fueled a tech stock bubble. When that bubble burst, the Fed inflated a larger one in real estate. Now that the real estate bubble has burst, the Fed is inflating the biggest bubble of them all - a bubble in government. While the earlier booms at least provided the illusion of prosperity and some fun while they lasted, the government bubble will cripple the economy and deliver widespread misery to the vast majority of Americans.

Of course, there will be winners in the government bubble, at least for a while. As was the case with the stock and real estate bubbles, plenty of money will be made by the well-connected and parasitic classes. Government employees will continue to enjoy pay raises at our expense, as will anyone benefiting from the new wave of subsidies, such as Wall Street investment bankers, financial speculators, and those working in health care or education.

These gains will come at the expense of the taxpayers who foot the bill and the consumers who face higher prices. As government grows, it deprives the private sector of the resources it needs to survive and grow. The result is a lower overall standard of living. Not only are government jobs less productive than private sector jobs, but bureaucratic interference actually makes the remaining private sector jobs less efficient as well.

Our economy is being transformed from a mostly capitalistic one to a mostly socialistic one. More decisions are being made by politicians and lawyers in Washington and fewer by entrepreneurs. The motivation behind this shift is the mistaken belief that the financial crisis of 2008 was caused by too much capitalism and a lack of proper government oversight. This conclusion is self-serving for those in power, and couldn't be more economically misguided. Through corruption or just plain ignorance, Congress and this Administration have embraced an ideology that has failed every time it has been tried.

Take the recent student loan reforms that were slipped into the health care bill. Obama wants to reduce the cost of providing student loans by taking the profits out of the industry. According to Obama, student loans are too expensive because banks profit from making them. If the government nationalizes the function, we would apparently bring down costs by eliminating those pesky profits.

This is a Marxist argument, pure and simple. If true, it would apply to all industries, not just banking. States like Cuba and North Korea would be the envy of the world, as they prohibit profits across the board. The truth is that profits, earned from free-market competition, keep cost down. By taking the profits out and putting the bureaucrats in, any incentive to provide better service or lower costs is eliminated. It's not hard to predict that student loan costs will now rise faster than ever.

That is clearly not the result we want. To solve the problem, people must understand that college tuitions are so expensive specifically because the government has guaranteed student loans . Guaranteed loans don't mean more access to education, but rather that universities are free to charge more per pupil than if their customers were paying out-of-pocket.

Obama's plan only serves to remove more market forces and creates an even bigger moral hazard.  Under the new rules, students will be required to repay a much smaller portion of what they borrow. As a result, students will be willing to borrow even greater amounts of cash to pay inflated tuitions, making it that much easier for colleges and universities to raise them.

Also, since the government will actually be loaning the money directly, rather than simply guaranteeing private-sector loans, the Treasury will actually have to borrow the money itself before it can re-lend it to students. I suppose the irony of going into debt to loan money never registers in Washington. Further, as this bill will cause tuitions to rise even faster, it will necessitate even larger loans that will produce even greater taxpayer losses when the loans end in default or forbearance.

Whether it is in education, housing, health care, automobiles, insurance, or banking, greater government involvement in the economy means higher prices, lower productivity, more bailouts, bigger deficits, increased taxes, diminished industrial capacity, fewer private sector jobs, less freedom, and a falling standard of living.

In the end, when runaway inflation and skyrocketing interest rates burst the government bubble, there will be no more bubbles to replace it - just one hell of a hangover.

Not Gone Away

It's hard being a bear these days. In fact, what I'm experiencing right now reminds me of the frustration and pain I felt back in 2007, when clueless Pollyannas were enchanting the masses (and the media) with talk of a neverending Goldilocks economy and the wonderful job that policymakers were doing to keep things on an even keel.

In the end, my belief that reckless borrowing, speculation, and risk-taking, myriad unsustainable imbalances, and mindless complacency would end badly helped me survive the onslaught of propaganda, lies, and delusion.

Of course, just because I was right before doesn't mean I will be this time around. In fact, after the nightmare of the past few years, I hope I am wrong. Unfortunately, I think the odds of a happy ending are remote. For one thing, many of the problems that caused the crisis to begin with have not gone away.

In "A Strong First Quarter in Stocks, But Investors Shouldn't Ignore the Dark Clouds," the Washington Post discusses one of them.

While acknowledging the improvement in the economy and excesses rung out from the financial system, [bearish] analysts argue that at its core, the same old problems loom: Individual debt, corporate debt, government debt.

David Levy of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center said that even though upturns in the post-World War II period have lasted for several years, that won't be the case this time.

"Unsustained debt — that's really what's different this time," he said.

For example, he pointed to household debt that, while recently improved, exceeds income. According to Federal Reserve statistics, the financial sector, which includes companies and government-sponsored enterprises, still has outstanding debt that is 119 percent the size of the gross domestic product. In 1990, that ratio was 46 percent.

"What this means is the private sector cannot function the way it normally does," Levy said. "This is a tremendous difference from any other cycle we've had since the 1930s. The idea we're going to jump-start the economy, and then it'll kind of kick in and drive itself — that doesn't work here. . . . Next year is very much a question mark in my mind."

Economic Events For The Trading Week: April 5 - 9, 2010

Interest rates and monetary policies of the world's major central banks will take the center stage in a busy week ahead that will bring the FOMC Meeting Minutes and four interest rate announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is a quick look at the most important economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to.

Monday, Apr. 5 will start with the first spotlight event of the week- the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index of economic conditions in the services industries: agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade, at 10:00 am, ET.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is expected to show further expansion in the services sector of the economy with consensus forecasts in a range between 53.6 and 54.0, compared with a previous reading of 53.0.

Another notable economic report will bring the release of the U.S. Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator of housing market conditions, at 10:00 am, ET. The data may show a smaller decline in pending home sales of -1% from -7.6%.

The day will conclude with New Zealand's Business Confidence survey of business sentiment, at 6:00 pm, ET.

Tuesday, Apr. 6 will start with one of the main spotlight events of the week- the Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Announcement, at 12:30 am, ET. The Australian central bank's campaign toward interest rates normalization could continue with another rate hike at the upcoming meeting.
The Japanese Leading Indicators of economic activity will follow at 1:00 am, ET.

A spotlight event will deliver the Swiss CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, at 3:15 am, ET.

The European economic data will continue with the Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence Index of investors' outlook on the economy, at 4:30 am, ET, along with the U.K. Construction PMI- Purchasing Managers' Index, measuring the level of activity of purchasing managers in the construction sector, also at 4:30 am, ET.

The only U.S. economic report for the day will bring a spotlight event- the U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes, a detailed record of the Fed's last monetary policy meeting that may provide an outlook on the economy, inflation and the Fed's future monetary policy, scheduled at 2:00 pm, ET.

The evening will bring a sequence of important data, beginning with the U.K. Nationwide Building Society's Consumer Confidence Index, a survey of consumers' financial conditions and outlook on the economy, at 7:00 pm, ET, along with the British Retail Consortium Shop Price Index of changes in the prices of goods, also at 7:00 pm, ET.

The Australian Services PMI- Purchasing Managers' Index, measuring the level of activity of purchasing managers in the services sector, will wrap up the day at 7:30 pm, ET.

Wednesday, Apr. 7 will begin with a spotlight event- the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Announcement, expected around 12:00 am, ET. With deflation still posing a serious threat to the Japanese economic recovery, the Bank of Japan is not in a position to raise interest rates, but in light of recent positive economic data, the bank may provide a more upbeat assessment of economic conditions.

News from Switzerland will bring the Swiss Retail Sales, an important measure of consumer spending, at 3:15 am, ET.

Two notable reports will follow with the releases of the Euro-zone Services PMI- Purchasing Managers' Index, a measure of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, at 4:00 am, ET, and the U.K. Services PMI- Purchasing Managers' Index, at 4:30 am, ET.

A major spotlight event will deliver the final reading of the Euro-zone GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, at 5:00 am, ET, along with the Euro-zone PPI- Producer Price Index, the main measure of wholesale inflation experienced by manufacturers and a leading indicator of consumer inflation, also at 5:00 am, ET.

The German Factory Orders, a leading indicator of economic activity measuring orders placed with manufacturers in the Euro-zone's largest economy, will follow at 6:00 am, ET.

Notable Canadian economic data will include the Canadian Building Permits, a leading indicator of housing market activity, at 8:30 am, ET, and the Canadian Ivey PMI-Purchasing Managers' Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring the activity level of purchasing managers in all sectors of the economy, at 10:00 am, ET.

The only U.S. economic report for the day will be the EIA- Energy Information Administration Weekly Oil Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.

The evening series of important economic data will start with the Japanese Current Account of goods, services and transfer of payments into and out of the country, at 7:50 pm, ET, along with the Japanese Core Machinery Orders, a leading indicator of industrial activity, also at 7:50 pm, ET.

The day will end with a spotlight event- the Australian Employment Situation and Unemployment Rate, the main gauges of labor market conditions, at 9:30 pm, ET.

Thursday, Apr. 8 will begin with the Japanese Eco Watchers Survey of economic conditions and consumer spending, at 1:00 am, ET, and the Bank of Japan's Monthly Report on economic conditions, inflation and monetary policy, also at 1:00 am, ET.

A spotlight event will bring the U.K. Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, at 4:30 am, ET.

A couple of notable reports will follow with the releases of the Euro-zone Retail Sales, an important measure of consumer spending, at 5:00 am, ET, and the German Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity in the Euro-zone's largest economy, at 6:00 am, ET.

The busy morning will continue with two of the main spotlight events of the week- the Bank of England Interest Rate Announcement, at 7:00 am, ET, and the European Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement, at 7:45 am, ET. Both of these central banks are expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

Another important event that morning will be the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's press conference following the ECB Governing Council's interest rate decision, due at 8:30 am, ET. The language of his statement will be very closely watched for any hints of future changes in the ECB's monetary policy.

The U.S. economic reports will begin with the weekly Jobless Claims, a gauge of labor market conditions measuring new unemployment claims, at 8:30 am, ET, followed by the U.S. EIA- Energy Information Administration Weekly Natural Gas Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.

The day will end with the preliminary estimate of the U.K. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, expected around 7:00 pm, ET, and the Australian Construction PMI- Purchasing Managers' Index, measuring the level of activity of purchasing managers in the construction sector, at 7:30 pm, ET.

Friday, Apr. 9 will start with the German Trade Balance of the difference between imports and exports, at 2:00 am, ET, and the French Industrial Production, the main measure of industrial activity in the Euro-zone's second-largest economy, at 2:45 am, ET.

News from the U.K. will bring a notable report- the U.K. Input and Output PPI- Producers Price Indexes, the main measures of wholesale inflation experienced by manufacturers and leading indicators of consumer inflation, at 4:30 am, ET.

A spotlight event will follow with the release of the Canadian Employment Situation and Unemployment Rate, the main gauge of employment trends and labor market conditions, at 7:00 am, ET.

The trading week will end with the U.S. Wholesale Trade, an indicator of economic conditions measuring business inventories and sales, scheduled at 10:00 am, ET.

Stock Picks : DryShips, Banner Corporation, Cord Blood America

 

Banner Corporation is trading a very tight range here and should make a move soon. The stock looks like it is in the process of developing a bull flag or pennant and the breakout should be a nice one if it can hold up. Keep an eye on BANR as it is starting to tick up. The stock is in a short-term bull market and should continue to go up as both 20 day and 50 day moving average are heading up. At this stage it is definitely a wait and see if the resistance will be easily taken out by the bulls.

 

DryShips - On Thursday finally we've had a breakout ( $6 ) to the upside, next significant resistance reference lays at 6.16 ( 200 SMA ). Two resistance points can be noted, first is at 6.16, second at 6.30. If it breaks out of 6.30 target price is 7.99. A good breakout volume would be above 15M shares traded. Lower support zones located at 5.86 and 5.69. The technical chart above shows the stock is in bull market as %K line is above %D line with MACD back above signal line. With stock back above 50 day moving average there are plenty of upside for this stock.

 

Cord Blood America is sitting on the 20 SMA on the Weekly chart. However the stock is exhibiting signs of bullish divergence. RSI registered a higher high. Watch CBAI closely next week.

 

Freshwater Techs  -   On Wednesday I alerted my readers about this penny stock. The stock has proven its bullishness. FWTC surprisingly gapped up with a big upward spread and was accompanied by large volume. The stock was able to move past 0.050 resistance level and continued up to as high as 0.058. MACD also followed as well with the movement of the price. Resistance is now $0.058, which was Thursday's high of the day. I expect to see a strong upside move if the stock can break through this resistance level. Watch FWTC closely on Monday.

List of stocks whose chart is displaying a cup and handle formation

WFC - WELLS FARGO & CO
X - U S STEEL GRO
CAT - Caterpillar Inc
MDT - MEDTRONIC INC
BBY - BEST BUY CO INC
PHM - Pultegroup Inc
EWA - WEBS Australia
NWL - NEWELL RUBBERMAID INC
CPN - Calpine Corp
BHP - BHP Billiton Ltd
SE - SPECTRA ENERGY CORP
CA - CA Inc
TXT - TEXTRON INC
CAR - Avis Budget Group Inc
ATML - Atmel Corporation
L - LOEWS CORP
KWK - Quicksilver Resources
TER - TERADYNE INC
HOG - HARLEY DAVIDSON INC
FHN - FIRST TENNESSEE NAT
TOL - TOLL BROTHERS INC
RSG - REPUBLIC SERVICES INC
CAM - Cameron Intl
STM - STMicroelectronics NV
DCT - DCT Industrial Trus.
ARO - AEROPOSTALE INC
CB - CHUBB CORP
RRC - Range Resources Corp
VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceutical
COV - Covidien Plc
ELNK - EarthLink, Inc.
EGLE - Eagle Bulk Shipping
CCK - CROWN CORK & SEAL
PCL - PLUM CREEK TIMBER CO
NCR - N C R CORP
FNFG - First Niagara Finan
FOE - FERRO CORP
WTR - PHILADELPHIA SUBURB
CTAS - Cintas Corporation
ARBA - Ariba, Inc.
SNH - SENIOR HOUSING PROP
CVH - COVENTRY HEALTH CAR
LQD - ISHARES IBOXX CP BD
YSI - U-STORE-IT TRUST
EPI - WisdomTree India E
RTP - RIO TINTO P L C
NWBI - Northwest Bancorp
CRA - Celera Group
LRY - LIBERTY PROPERTY TRUST
CPT - CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST
JOE - ST JOE CORP
PSEC - Prospect Cptl Cp
BRY - BERRY PETROLEUM CO
ACC - AMER CAMPUS COMMUNICATION
TDS - Telephone & Data Sy
ALSK - Alaska Communication
PLAB - Photronics, Inc.
REGN - Regeneron Pharmaceutical
RL - POLO RALPH LAUREN CORP
GMT - G A T X CORP
MTH - Meritage Homes
ABD - ACCO BRANDS CORP
HMC - HONDA MOTOR CO LTD
CRL - CHARLES RIVER LABOR
SVVS - Savvis Cp
PFS - Provident Financial
VMI - Valmont Industries Inc
TSU - Tim Participacs
IRDM - Iridium Comm Inc

List of stocks whose chart is displaying an ascending triangle pattern

MGM - MGM MIRAGE
NWSA - News Corp Ltd
BMY - BRISTOL MYERS SQUIB
KFT - KRAFT FOODS INC
USB - US Bancorp
GS - GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP
STT - STATE STREET CORP
OXY - OCCIDENTAL PETROLEU
PHM - Pultegroup Inc
AMX - America Movil SA
EWS - WEBS Singapore
PMCS - PMC - Sierra, Inc.
TOL - TOLL BROTHERS INC
NWS - News Corp Ltd ADR
NI - NISOURCE INC
CL - COLGATE-PALMOLIVE C
COV - Covidien Plc
SWC - Stillwater Mining Co
JEF - JEFFERIES GROUP INC
NVS - NOVARTIS A G
ME - Mariner Energy Inc
MHP - MCGRAW HILL COS INC
SNH - SENIOR HOUSING PROP
PDCO - Patterson Co
PVX - PROVIDENT ENERGY TR
LNT - Alliant Energy Corp
BDX - Becton Dickinson
EMN - EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO
AOL - AOL Inc
NWBI - Northwest Bancorp
ILMN - Illumina, Inc.
ACL - Alcon Inc
JAH - JARDEN CORP
DOX - AMDOCS LTD
BCR - BARD C R INC
ICLR - ICON plc
CVE - Cenovus Energy Inc
MGA - MAGNA INTL INC CL A
TUP - Tupperware Brands
GMT - G A T X CORP
PRSP - Prosperity Bancshar
HME - Home Properties Inc
NTT - NIPPON TELEPHONE
ODFL - Old Dominion Freigh
VQ - Venoco Inc
CRL - CHARLES RIVER LABOR
HMSY - Health Management S

Earnings Announcements for Monday

Abatix - ABIX.PK
Acusphere Inc. - ACUS.PK
Adams Express - ADX
ADHEREX TECHNOLOGIES INC - ADHXF.PK
AIR INDS GROUP INC - AIRI.PK
AMERICAN INTL INDUSTRIES - AMIN
AMVIG HOLDINGS LTD - AMVGF.PK
AUTOINFO INC - AUTO.OB
AZZ Incorporated - AZZ
BEIJING NORTH STAR CO LTD - BEIJF.PK
Biolife Solutions - BLFS.OB
BSD Medical Corporation - BSDM
C-Chip Technologies Corporation - AVNY.PK
Central Virginia Bankshares - CVBK
Chaparral Energy Inc - CPR
Cherokee - CHKE
CHINA CRESCENT ENTERPRISES INC - CCTR.OB
CHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTD - LFC
COMMUNITY BANCORP NEV - CBON.PK
COMMUNITY CENTRAL BANK CORP - CCBD
Core Molding Technologies, Inc - CMT
CREATIVE VISTAS INC - CVAS.OB
CYCLE CTRY ACCESSORIES CORP - ATC
DATANG INTL PWR GENERATN LTD - DIPGF.PK
DigitalFX International, Inc. - DGFX.PK
ECLIPS ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES INC - EEGT.OB
EMAK Worldwide Inc. - EMAK.PK
Environmental Power - EPG
FIFTH STREET FINANCE CORP - FSC
Finlay Enterprises, Inc. - FNLYQ.PK
FIRST ST FINL CORP FLA - FSTF.PK
FirstFed Financial - FFEDQ.PK
Fleetwood Enterprises, Inc. - FLTWQ.PK
Forbes Medi-Tech - FMTI.PK
FUWEI FILMS HLDGS CO LTD - FFHL
General American Investors - GAM
Griffin Land & Nurseries - GRIF
HEI, Inc. - HEII.PK
HELICOS BIOSCIENCES CORP - HLCS
Hemiwedge Industries, Inc. - HWEG.PK
Horizon Financial - HRZB.PK
Imaging Diagnostic Systems, Inc. - IMDS.OB
Imperial Capital Bancorp, Inc. - IMPC.PK
IVANHOE MINES LTD - IVN
Joe's Jeans Inc. - JOEZ
Le Chateau - SUTU.PK
LoJack - LOJN
MAGNITOGORSKY METALLURGY PLANT - MGKPF.PK
Matrix Service - MTRX
Micros-To-MainFrames - MTMC.PK
NASB Financial, Inc. - NASB
NATURAL HEALTH TRENDS CORP - BHIP.PK
Northern Technologies International Corporation - NTIC
Orleans Homebuilders - OHBIQ.PK
PACIFIC STATE BANCORP CA - PSBC
Point Blank Solutions, Inc. - PBSO.PK
PROLINK HOLDINGS CORP - PLKH.PK
PURECYCLE CORP - PCYO
RAM HOLDINGS LTD - RAMR.PK
ReGen Biologics, Inc. - RGBO.PK
RehabCare Group, Inc -.RHB
Remote Dynamics, Inc - RMTD.PK
Rex Stores Corporation - RSC
Shanghai Electric Group Co. Ltd - SIELF.PK
Siebert Financial - SIEB
SMART MOVE INC - SMVE.PK
Sun-Times Media Group - SUTMQ.PK
The First Bancorp, Inc. - FNLC
TIENS BIOTECH GROUP USA INC - TBV
Track Data - TRAC.PK
Transcontinental Realty - TCI
TRAVELSKY TECHNOLOGY LTD - TSYHF.PK
Triple Crown Media, Inc. - TCMIQ.PK
VOLGATELECOM PUB JT STK CO - VLGAY.PK
Volt Information Sciences - VOL
W Holding Company, Inc. - WHI
Wireless Telecomm - WTT
Xcorporeal, Inc - XCRP.PK
Young Broadcasting - YBTVQ.PK

New 52-week High stocks

MYL - Mylan Inc
MTG - M G I C INVT CORP WIS
RDN - RADIAN GROUP INC
LUV - SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO
M - FEDERATED DEPARTMEN
EWY - WEBS South Korea
JDSU - JDS Uniphase Corporation
HON - HONEYWELL INTERNATI
GPS - GAP INC
LINTA - LIBERTY MED INT A
TSN - TYSON FOODS INC CL A
SLE - SARA LEE CORP
MET - METLIFE INC
CBG - CB RICHARD ELLIS GR
MCD - MCDONALDS CORP
KMX - CarMax Inc
OXY - OCCIDENTAL PETROLEU
LPX - LOUISIANA PACIFIC CORP
RDC - ROWAN COS INC
ZQK - Quiksilver Inc
CMCSK - Comcast Corporation
YUM - TRICON GLOBAL REST INC
VIA.B - Viacom Inc Class B
EWH - WEBS Hong Kong
FL - Foot Locker Inc
TCK - Teck Recs B
LIHR - Lihir Gold, Limited
MAS - Masco Corporation
URBN - Urban Outfitters, Inc.
XRTX - XYRATEX LTD
APC - ANADARKO PETROLEUM
CTRP - CTRIP.COM INTL LTD ADS
AMX - America Movil SA
ATHR - ATHEROS COMMUN INC
MAR - MARRIOTT INTL INC NEW
VMED - Virgin Media Inc
LNC - LINCOLN NATIONAL CORP
D - DOMINION RESOURCES
MTL - MECHEL OAO
BZ - Aldabra 2 Acquisiti
OCR - OMNICARE INC
TLB - TALBOTS INC
ANF - ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO
BELM - Bell Microproducts
RSX - Market Vectors Russ
ALL - ALLSTATE CORP
NSC - NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP
SID - Companhia Siderurgi
PRU - PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL
CCL - CARNIVAL CORP
FDX - FedEx Corporation
CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources
ARCC - ARES CAPITAL CP
ARMH - ARM Holdings, plc
HOT - Starwood Hotels
EWC - WEBS Canada
BWA - BorgWarner Inc
IBN - Icici Bank Ltd
SLXP - Salix Pharmaceutical
TMO - Thermo Fisher Scien
EPD - ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS
NOC - NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP
UHS - UNIVERSAL HEALTH SV
PPS - POST PROPERTIES INC
AGN - ALLERGAN INCORPORATED
CBE - Cooper Inds Plc
SIG - Signet Jewelers
KNX - Knight Transportation
INCY - Incyte Genomics Inc.
FDO - FAMILY DOLLAR STORE
LBTYA - Liberty Global Inc
BBL - BHP BILLITON PLC AD
SEIC - SEI Investments Com
VTI - Vanguard Total Stoc
KIE - SPDR KBW INSURE
SKX - SKECHERS USA INC
GPOR - Gulfport Energy Corp
CVE - Cenovus Energy Inc
MJN - Mead Johnson Nutrition
ARUN - Aruba Networks Inc
ASH - ASHLAND INC
SCI - SERVICE CORPORATION
TII - Telmex Internacional
FNSR - Finisar Corporation
AYI - ACUITY BRANDS INC
G - Genpact Ltd
SPR - Spirit Aerosystems
CRUS - Cirrus Logic, Inc.
LNCR - Lincare Holdings Inc.
AER - AERCAP HOLDINGS N V
VAR - Varian Medical Systems
NU - NORTHEAST UTILITIES
WLL - WHITING PETROLEUM CP
GMCR - Green Mountain Coff
AIZ - ASSURANT INC
PGH - Pengrowth Energy Trust
SHW - SHERWIN WILLIAMS CO
BPW - BPW Acquisition Corp
PVH - PHILLIPS VAN HEUSEN
ARW - ARROW ELECTRONICS INC
PHH - Phh Cor
LH - LABORATORY AMER HLD
WDR - WADDELL & REED FINL
IMAX - Imax Corporation

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations. The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

Biggest 3-Month Gain In The Dow Since 1999

 
 
DailyMarkets.com (New York) - U.S. stock markets were closed Friday for Good Friday. For the holiday shortened week, major stock indices climbed for the fifth consecutive week ahead of the government's March employment report, with the Dow having its longest winning streak since April last year. The Dow rose 0.7% to close at 10,927.07; the S&P 500 index gained 1% to 1,178.10, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.3% to 2,402.58.

On Friday, the Labor Department announced that U.S. employment in March increased the most in three years. 162,000 jobs were added, the third increase in the past five months. Although the headline number fell short of the forecast of a 184,000 increase, the gain indicated a turning point for the labor market as the U.S. economy recovers from the worst recession since the Great Depression.

The increase included 48,000 temporary workers hired by the government to conduct the census. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.7% for a third month. There were some negatives in the payrolls report: Average earnings per hour declined in March, and the number of people working part-time rose as they couldn't find full-time jobs.

A stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing report and consumer spending report led to gains in stocks. The ISM manufacturing index rose to 59.6 in March from 56.5 in February, much better than the forecast of 57. It was the fastest growth since July 2004. Meanwhile consumer spending increased for a fifth straight month in February.

For the quarter, the Dow rose 4.1%, the best first-quarter performance since 1999. The S&P 500 gained 4.9%, its best first-quarter since 1998.

In forex trading, the US dollar gained against major currencies after the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. For the week, the US dollar rose 2.2% against the Japanese yen to 94.69 - the highest level since August last year.

However, the greenback had its first weekly decline against the Euro since March 12, falling 0.6% to 1.3484. EUR/USD hit a high of 1.5144 in November last year. For the quarter, EUR/USD fell 5.7%, the largest three-month decline since September 2008. The Japanese yen was sold broadly, and against the Euro, it fell 2.7%, its second weekly loss.

The jobs report boosted investors' optimism that the U.S. economy is healing and that recession is certainly over. Futures on the CME exchange showed a 60% odds that the Fed will increase the target rate for overnight bank lending by at least 25 basis points by November, up from 45% chance a month ago.
 

China, Europe Ahead Of The U.S. In The Clean Energy Race


If the United States doesn't take drastic measures to engineer new clean energy policies and investment initiatives, it will continue to take a back seat to China and Europe, which are driving the clean energy market toward a profitable future.
Both clean energy companies and a skilled workforce are heading overseas, where government policies are creating a more welcoming and promising market for clean energy products.
Take Massachusetts-based Evergreen Solar, Inc . In 2008, it used $58 million in government aid to open a new Massachusetts factory to build silicon wafers and cells and assemble solar panels. But in November 2009, it announced the assembly of solar panels would be moved to Wuhan, China, where solar panel manufacturing will cost far less than in the United States.
Evergreen earlier this month said it would expand its European sales division to cater to the robust government incentive programs in Europe, which are encouraging businesses to adopt more renewable energy practices.
NatCore Technology Inc. in New Jersey discovered how to make solar panels thinner, making them more cost efficient to manufacture. No American companies showed interest in the technology, so it reached a deal to finish developing and producing the technology in Changsha, China.
"The United States' competitive position is at risk in the emerging clean energy economy," Phyllis Cuttino, director of the Pew Environment Group's Global Warming Campaign, said in a statement. "Even in the midst of a global recession, the clean energy market has experienced impressive growth. Countries are jockeying for leadership. They know that investing in clean energy can renew manufacturing bases, and create export opportunities, jobs and businesses."
Overall 2009 global renewable energy investment came in at $162 billion. Investment only fell 6.6% from 2008 - small potatoes compared to the 19% decrease in the oil and gas industry.
Investment next year should reverse and make a huge leap forward. Global renewable energy investment expectations for 2010 are $200 billion, up 25% from last year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
It's not a passionate movement to save the earth that's behind the clean energy market; it's market competition and job creation driving the clean energy race - and the United States is losing.
Prices of renewable technologies are decreasing, making them more competitive. If climate concern isn't enough motivation to encourage use, economic and employment benefits will.
The city of Baoding, China is a perfect example. The city's pristine water quality made film production one of its top industries. But when digital cameras put an end to that era, the city needed new industries to thrive. Baoding saw an opportunity in clean energy, and now it is one of the world's largest manufacturers of solar products.
China is also enlisted Arizona-based solar panel manufacturer First Solar, Inc  to build the world's largest solar plant in the Gobi Desert.
Onshore wind energy is China's other clean energy focus: It's wind capacity doubled in each of the past four years.
China catches flack for the amount of greenhouse gases its plants release, but it has steps in place to reduce emissions while creating jobs and enjoying corporate growth.
"We may spend the next few years pushing China to do more, but will then spend all the years after that chasing them as they hurtle profitably down the road to the low-carbon transformation," said Todd Stern, the U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change.
The Money Follows the Market
In 2009, China overtook the United States in renewable energy investments for the first time ever. China pushed $34.6 billion into renewable energy projects - mostly wind farms - while the United States only spent $18.6 billion.
Wind energy and solar power are the most popular renewables, nabbing billions of investment dollars.
Wind energy constitutes over 50% of global clean energy investment. Bloomberg New Energy Finance is expecting a 9% increase in global installations of wind turbines this year - the equivalent of 34 new nuclear power stations - with a price tag of $65 billion. That's partly because turbine prices have declined 15% over the past two years.
Still, solar energy has a smaller piece of the market than wind, and prices have sharply declined in recent years, positioning solar power for significant growth.
Compared to other Group of 20 (G20) nations, the United States falls short in the rankings, with 0.13% of its gross domestic product (GDP) invested in clean energy products, ranking it 11th against its G20 counterparts.
Spain invested five times more as a percentage of GDP in renewable energy projects than the United States; The United Kingdom, China and Brazil invested three times as much.
So why's the money moving so swiftly in China and Europe?
Foreign governments are implementing policies to encourage clean energy market growth by punishing carbon emissions and subsidizing renewable energy usage. Instead of talking about change - like the United States - they are already changing, shifting their businesses to acknowledge a more environmentally friendly market.
And the cash is pouring in.
Companies are recognizing the need to move to where the consumer base is developing for the clean energy market - and that is not the United States.
"If you want to have the same size of company that you have today, then you need to start the shift," said Katrina Landis, chief executive of the London-based BP Plc.'s  alternative energy unit. "It means to some degree giving up what you've done for the last 100 years."
General Electric Company  last week said it would invest $453 million in wind-turbine operations in the U.K, Norway, Germany and Sweden.
"What you see going on in Europe is long-term, predictable policy around renewables," Steve Bolze, head of GE's power and water divisions, told Bloomberg.
The European Union (EU) aims to drive 20% of its produced energy from renewable resources by 2020, and has the initiatives in place to meet that goal.
The European Wind Energy Association said Europe's offshore wind industry could grow by 70% in 2010. Once completed, those projects could account for up to 10% of the EU's yearly electricity output, while decreasing carbon emissions by 200 million tons.
The U.K. government is establishing a $3 billion Green Investment Bank for promoting low-carbon energy technologies. Funds will go to developing ports that support offshore wind turbine makers.
Another clean energy winner, Germany, offers a per-kilowatt subsidy for solar panel use. As soon as solar panels are put online, the panel users start earning money. The government pays per-kilowatt subsidies for 20 years - instead of a one-time payment like the United States. The more energy produced by the solar panels, the more money earned by the users.
Other countries have adopted feed-in tariffs, carbon-reduction targets, financial incentives for investment and energy production, and energy efficiency goals.
Meanwhile, the United States has talked a lot about needed changes, but has yet to move much through Congress.
"Our nation has a critical choice to make: pass the federal policies necessary to position us as the world leader in the large and growing global clean energy market or continue to watch as China and other countries race ahead," said Pew Environment Group's Cuttino.
Too Much Talk, Not Enough Action
While most of the country has had its eyes on healthcare reform, Senators John Kerry, D-MA, Joe Lieberman, R-SC, and Lindsey Graham, I-CT, have been outlining a climate and energy proposal.
Until now, Washington's way of handling climate change policies was to enforce cap-and-trade laws. "Cap" places limits via permits on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions allowed by companies; "trade" gives the companies a market to exchange their permits.
The cap-and-trade legislation has stalled in Congress, and is of little interest to companies because it doesn't do enough to encourage growth. The House's Waxman-Markey bill focused on cap-and-trade policies, but they will be a small part of a proposal by the Senate.
A new energy bill has to do more than punish carbon emissions if it's going to get support; it has to create jobs. After surviving the recession and facing stagnant job growth, people want to see the country move forward and enact policies that promote employment.
The private sector will be hesitant to increase clean energy investment, until a bill creating a job market is proposed,. The government's next steps will be key in creating a U.S. market impressive enough to compete with China and Europe.
"What the U.S. needs, which Europe, China and other countries have, is a stable, long-term policy," said GE's Bolze. "Our view is that you need a federal, renewable portfolio standard, or have that as part of a clean energy bill, to really restart and move forward."
Some of the proposals being talked about in Washington include a monthly auction for carbon share bidding, and business-friendly practices to encourage fewer foreign oils and fossil fuels.
President Barack Obama's goal is to make the United States the world's leading renewable energy exporter - but right now its businesses and employees are what's leaving the country.
"We're very good at creating companies," John Woolard, chief executive at solar power firm BrightSource Energy, said on a conference call. "We're not doing a very good job creating markets."
Get Out in Front in the Clean Energy Race
Companies with stakes in the promising clean energy lands of China and Europe, and companies that come out with innovative designs are in the best position to collect clean energy profits.
First Solar is a huge player in the solar industry and has a patented thin-film technology sought after by many companies globally. Its patented designs will be used in its largest free-field solar power plant being constructed in Spain.
Vestas Wind Systems, a Denmark-based wind-turbine maker that trades on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange, is the world's biggest turbine manufacture and is poised to profit handsomely from Europe's growing investment in onshore and offshore wind energy projects.
And for a more balanced play on clean energy, the Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF  includes 30 companies worldwide invested in alternative energies and related technologies.
Investments like these will will reap the rewards as the industry gets more government and private sector investment.