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Indian Market Seen Subdued Ahead Of Infosys’ Results

 
The Indian market may open on a slightly weak note Tuesday, tracking subdued Asian cues. Today's trading may largely be influenced by Infosys, which is set to unveil its fourth-quarter results before the market opens today. Profit taking ahead of a public holiday tomorrow may also cause some volatility.

On Wall Street, easing fears about a Greek default and upbeat sentiment ahead of the reporting season contributed to a positive close on Monday. All the major averages closed on the upside despite threatening to end lower in late-session dealing. While the Dow advanced 0.1%, the Nasdaq and the S&P edged up around 0.2% each.

However, the Indian ADRs closed mostly lower, with Sterlite Industries, Reddy's Laboratories and ICICI Bank losing between 1.5% and 3.7%.

The Dow futures are now moving down by 18 points. After the closing bell on Wall Street Monday, aluminum producer Alcoa (AA) kick-stared the earning season by posting a $201 million net loss for the first quarter on hefty one-time charges, but said prices and demand are improving for aluminum products.

Crude oil prices slipped for the fourth consecutive session on Monday on demand concerns. Light, sweet crude for delivery in May fell 58 cents to $84.34 a barrel after rallying above $85 earlier in the day.

The Indian rupee also closed down 18 paise against the greenback on Monday, weighed by dollar buying by importers and weaker-than-expected February's industrial output data.

The benchmark indexes Sensex and the Nifty ended down around 0.4% each on Monday, as investors held back purchases ahead of IT bellwether Infosys' results. A disappointing industrial output report and fears of a sharp rise in interest rates also dampened sentiment to some extent.

South Korean Market Trades Weak

The South Korean stock market is trading lower on Tuesday with investors looking to take profits in banking and shipping stocks. Automobile and oil stocks are also exhibiting some weakness.

The benchmark KOSPI index, which drifted down to around 1,699 in early trades, is currently at 1,708, down 2.3 points or 0.13% from its previous close.

Among technology stocks, Hynix Semiconductor, LG Display LCD and LG Electronics are trading higher by 1.3%-1.7%, while heavyweight Samsung Electronics is trading in negative territory with a loss of about 1%.

In the banking space, Korea Exchange Bank, Shinhan Financial and KB Financial are down 0.6%-0.7%, while Woori Finance is down with a loss of 2%.

Among shipping stocks, STX Pan Ocean and Daewoo Shipbuilding are trading modestly higher, while Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries are trading lower by 0.2% and 1% respectively.

Automobile stocks Kia Motor and Hyundai Motor are trading notably higher. However, Ssangyong Motor is down with a sharp loss of 2.3%.

Oil and steel stocks are trading mixed. Airliners and telecommunications stocks are also exhibiting a mixed trend.

Among other markets in the Asia-Pacific region, Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan are trading weak, while Shanghai, Hong Kong and New Zealand are in positive territory. Markets across the region had ended on a mixed note on Monday.

On Wall Street, stocks managed to close on the upside on Monday after a choppy ride. Rising hopes about a solution to Greece's debt problems and upbeat sentiment ahead of the reporting season contributed to the positive close.

The major averages all closed on the upside despite threatening to end lower in late-session dealing. The Dow advanced by 8.6 points or 0.1% to 11,006, the Nasdaq closed up 3.8 points or 0.2% at 2,457.9 and the S&P 500 edged up by 2.1 points or 0.2% to 1,196.5.

Major European markets closed nearly unchanged on Monday. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index edged up 0.1%, while the German DAX index and the French CAC 40 closed flat.

Crude oil prices slipped for the fourth consecutive session on Monday on demand concerns. Light, sweet crude for delivery in May, fell 58 cents to US$84.34 a barrel after rallying above US$85 earlier in the day.

Three ETFs To Watch This Week: TIP, SMH, MXN

After plunging in mid-week trading, equity markets climbed back to finish up last week. Commodity markets were also in focus, as oil stayed flat and a sinking dollar caused gold to gain almost $50/oz. in trading over the course of the week. Bond yields also slipped with the benchmark 10 Year T-Bill falling by close to 15 basis points from its Monday high. This week looks to be heavy on crucial data releases as well as the beginning of earnings season, which could put many equity ETFs in focus. Below, we profile three ETFs in particular that could see an active week:

Rydex CurrencyShares Mexican Peso Trust (14.37 0.00 0.00%)

Why MXN Could Be On The Move: The Bank of Mexico meets on Friday and will give its decision regarding rates. Currently, the benchmark rate is at a record low of 4.5% where it has been for the past seven central bank meetings. The Mexican economy experienced inflation of close to 5% from a year earlier and 0.71% when compared to February numbers. However, some analysts are dismissing this as a result of often volatile food and energy prices. Core inflation was at 0.36% for the month. "The relatively high March headline inflation reading was largely part of the salsa effect, as volatile ingredients like tomatoes and onions spiked up," said Luis Arcentales, an economist with Morgan Stanley in New York in an interview with BusinessWeek, adding that it's unlikely the bank will react to the report by raising borrowing costs. However, many believe that the Bank will be forced to raise rates either in the summer or at the very latest by the start of 2011. Look for the Bank's language regarding any interest rate hikes to keep the peso and MXN in focus. The peso has been soaring against the dollar this year (see Three Currency ETFs Matching The Dollar's Recent Gains to find out which other currencies have been performing well in 2010).

Merrill Lynch Semiconductor HOLDR ( 28.38 0.00 0.00%)

Why SMH Could Be On The Move: Intel (INTC) reports earnings on Tuesday after the bell. The company is forecasted to produce earnings of 38 cents a share for the most recent quarter which is dramatically higher than the previous year's figures which came in at 11 cents a share. Intel is often seen as a bellwether for the entire chip and computer manufacturing industry so positive guidance out of the company would go a long way in terms of easing investors fears regarding a double dip recession. SMH looks to be especially in focus because it has one of the highest allocations to INTC out of any ETF, with just under 24% of the total fund assets going to the firm(see Five Facts About HOLDRs Every Investor Must Know).

iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund ( 103.86 0.00 0.00%)

Why TIP Could Be On The Move: March CPI numbers will be released on April 14th at 8:30 AM EST. The previous month saw the Consumer Price Index for urban consumers stay flat when compared to January numbers, but core CPI was up 0.1% for the month. TIP could be in focus if CPI levels are higher then expected, which could push demand for inflation-protected securities upward (for other ETFs that can help to protect against inflation see Beyond TIP: 10 ETFs To Protect Against Inflation). On the other hand, a weak inflation reading could lead to a TIP sell-off.

Last Week's ETFs To Watch:

FXY: Japanese yen soared higher against the dollar, especially in mid-week trading which helped to push FXY up 1.3% for the week.

EWG: German markets experienced a volatile week as a slew of data releases heavily affected the prospects of EWG. The fund sank by over 3% from Monday to Wednesday and then soared back on Thursday and Friday to close the week unchanged.

TIP: After an issuance of 10 year TIPS, TIP rose a little over 1% for the week. The TIP issuance yielded 1.709% as solid demand from investors helped to boost prices and push down yields.

Asian Markets Exhibit Mixed Trend

 Despite positive cues from Wall Street, Asian stock markets are exhibiting a mixed trend on Tuesday with investors in some parts of the region choosing to take some profits ahead of key results.

Energy, materials, consumer staples and industrial stocks are among the notable losers in the Australian market.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index, which declined to 4,962.7, is currently trading at 4,971, down 13.3 points or 0.3% from its previous close. The broader All Ordinaries index is down 14.6 points or 0.3% at 4,997.

Among bank stocks, ANZ Bank and Westpack Banking Corporation are trading marginally up, while Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank are trading modestly lower.

Mining stocks BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Newcrest Mining are exhibiting weakness. Incitec Pivot, Lihir Gold, Bluescope Steel and Orica are also trading weak, while Fortescue Metals is in positive territory with a modest gain.

Among energy stocks, Woodside Petroleum is trading lower by 1.2%, Santos is down with a loss of about 1% and Oil Search is declining 1.3%, while Origin Energy is trading lower by 0.4% from its previous closing price.

Leighton Holdings has announced that it has been awarded contracts worth A$240 million for upgrade works on the Gateway Motorway in Brisbane. The contracts, covering works from Mt Gravatt-Capalaba Road to Miles Platting Road, are an extension to the existing Gateway Upgrade Project.

They involve widening the Gateway Motorway from four to six lanes, improving the road alignment and localised improvements to the Mt Gravatt-Capalaba Road interchange. Leighton will carry out the work through its joint venture with fellow constructor, Abigroup. The Leighton Holdings stock is currently trading 0.4% up.

Lend Lease said on Tuesday it has signed a conditional framework agreement with London Continental Railways to redevelop land at Stratford City, in east London. Construction of the development will begin after the London Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2013, Lend Lease said in a statement. Shares of Lend Lease are trading modestly lower.

In economic news, the Australian business confidence index edged lower to 16 in March from 13 in February, the National Australia Bank said on Tuesday. But the business conditions index rose 5 points to 13, with every sector reporting better conditions. Business activity levels are now at the strongest since January 2008, NAB said. Strong business outcomes were reported by the manufacturing, retail and recreational & personal services sectors.

In the currency market, the Australian dollar was marginally down following signs from the Reserve Bank of Australia that the official cash rate may be nearing the end of its upward path. In early trades, the Aussie was quoting at US$0.9276-US$0.9279, down slightly from Monday's close of US$0.9297-US$0.9299. The Australian dollar is currently trading at 0.9255 to the U.S. dollar.

The Japanese stock market is trading weak with profit taking and a stronger yen causing the decline.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index, which opened nearly 50 points down, was down 110.60 points or 0.98% at 11,141.30 at the end of the morning session.

Machinery, electric power and retail stocks are among the prominent losers. Gas, transport and financial stocks are also trading weak.

Honda Motor Co. said Tuesday it will begin leasing its new EV-neo electric motorcycle to business customers in Japan from December. "We are targeting corporate and individual customers running delivery services in the domestic market," the company said in a statement.

The EV-neo will be the company's second electric motorcycle following its first model launched in 1994. However, the Honda Motor stock is down in the red with a loss of about 1.2% due to overall negative sentiment.

Shares of Sanyo Electric Co. are up sharply on reports the firm's group operating profit could rise 50% from the figures estimated for last year to upwards of 45 billion yen in the year through March 2011.

Gulliver International is down after an industry group reported that used car sales in fiscal 2009 fell under 4 million units for the first time since the survey began in 1978.

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd shares are drifting lower with investors pressing sales at the counter following the Baltic Dry Index suffering a fall for the sixth straight trading day on Monday.

Mitsui OSK Lines, JFE Holdings, Dowa Holdings, Nippon Steel, Matsui Securities, Sumitomo Realty, Fast Retailing, Sumitomo Trust & Banking, Yahoo Japan, Asahi Glass, Pacific Metals and Advantest are among the notable losers.

Isuzu Motors is up 4.3%. GS Yuasa, Clarion, Kobe Steel, Mitsubishi Chemicals, All Nippon Airways, Fuji Electric and Mitsubishi Rayon are trading notably higher.

On the economic front, an index measuring domestic corporate service prices came in at 102.6 in March, down 1.3% on year, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday. That was slightly below forecasts for a 1.1% annual contraction following the 1.5% fall in February.

On a monthly basis, corporate service prices were up 0.2%, in line with expectations for a 0.3% gain after the 0.1% increase in February. For the first quarter of 2010, the corporate service price index came in at 102.4, down 1.7% on year.

In the currency market, the U.S. dollar traded in the lower 93 yen level in early deals in Tokyo. The yen is currently trading at 92.76 to the U.S. dollar.

The South Korean market is trading lower with investors looking to take profits in banking and shipping stocks. Automobile and oil stocks are also exhibiting some weakness.

The benchmark KOSPI index, which drifted down to around 1,699 in early trades, is currently at 1,708, down 2.3 points or 0.13% from its previous close.

Among technology stocks, Hynix Semiconductor, LG Display LCD and LG Electronics are trading higher by 1.3%-1.7%, while heavyweight Samsung Electronics is trading in negative territory with a loss of about 1%.

In the banking space, Korea Exchange Bank, Shinhan Financial and KB Financial are down 0.6%-0.7%, while Woori Finance is down with a loss of 2%.

Among shipping stocks, STX Pan Ocean and Daewoo Shipbuilding are trading modestly higher, while Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries are trading lower by 0.2% and 1% respectively.

Automobile stocks Kia Motor and Hyundai Motor are trading notably higher. However, Ssangyong Motor is down with a sharp loss of 2.3%.

Oil and steel stocks are trading mixed. Airliners and telecommunications stocks are also exhibiting a mixed trend.

Among other markets in the Asia-Pacific region, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan are trading weak, while Shanghai, Hong Kong and New Zealand are up in positive territory. Markets across the region had ended on a mixed note on Monday.

On Wall Street, stocks managed to close on the upside on Monday after a choppy ride. Rising hopes about a solution to Greece's debt problems and upbeat sentiment ahead of the reporting season contributed to the positive close.

The major averages all closed on the upside despite threatening to end lower in late-session dealing. The Dow advanced by 8.6 points or 0.1% to 11,006, the Nasdaq closed up 3.8 points or 0.2% at 2,457.9 and the S&P 500 edged up by 2.1 points or 0.2% to 1,196.5.

Major European markets closed nearly unchanged on Monday. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index edged up 0.1%, while the German DAX index and the French CAC 40 closed flat.

Crude oil prices slipped for the fourth consecutive session on Monday on demand concerns. Light, sweet crude for delivery in May, fell 58 cents to US$84.34 a barrel after rallying above US$85 earlier in the day. 

Does The Stock Market Need A Correction?

As the Dow Jones Industrial Average fulfilled its month long mission and breached 11,000 for the first time since 2006, we began thinking: Is the market's rally really sustainable? Is it backed by fundamental macro-economic reasons? Is the giddy sentiment between the media and market commentator's fully rationale? Can they all be correct at the same time? Are future corporate earnings really going to support the current P/E ratios of their stock prices?

Over the past few days, we here at SafariResearch.com have become slightly bearish in the near term. By constantly paying attention to market price action, sifting through countless economic and company specific data, scouring the internet for as much information as possible, and keeping up with the content distribution by the mass financial media outlets, we have taken notice of the ultra positive market sentiment and have began to question it's validity.

Although it is extremely difficult to be bearish, specifically in a period of free liquidity and extremely low interest rates, we believe that the last 5-10 percent of gains have been brought on by performance chasers buying in fear of being left out. These types of buyers are of the least conviction as they buy simply to ride the wave ignoring any intuition or fundamentals, they are also the first to head to the exits as soon as the tide turns.

We broke out our top three reasons for pessimism into each of two categories: Fundamental & Sentiment

Fundamental

1.) Current P/E ratios of the S&P 500 are 21, the long term average is 16 (mean reversion)

2.) As the S&P 500 approached 1200 in 2004, Trailing Operating Earnings Per Share were $68 and today they are $58

3.) Consumer confidence has not rebounded near as strongly as it is being represented by the price action in the market.

Sentiment

1.) As we entered the week, nearly every financial news front page had a reference to the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearing 11,000

2.) The VIX has signaled nothing but complacency.

3.) Recently on CNBC's Fast Money, Robert Prechter was verbally shut down by the show's wildly bullish commentators as soon as he began to share his pessimistic view.

For these and other reasons, we believe that equity markets may be headed lower in the near term. A 5-10% correction would be nothing but healthy as we enter the Q1 earnings season. Results will most likely be mixed as some businesses will surprise while other miss. All in all, the long term prospects will most likely be bullish as long as unemployment begins to trend lower and top line revenues begin to grow.

BIS: All Roads Lead To Inflation

Last week Stephen G Cecchetti (Head of the BIS Monetary and Economic Department), M S Mohanty (Head of BIS Monetary and Economic Department) and Fabrizio Zampolli (Senior Economist) of the Bank for International Settlements, released a working paper entitled The future of public debt: prospects and implications.

Structural deficits overwhelm the developed world
The paper paints a terrifying prospect for the inhabitants of most of the developed world. The chart below shows the projected debt to GDP ratios of Europe, Japan and the United States for the next 30 years. The red dotted line depicts the baseline scenario, which assumes that assume that government total revenue and non-age-related primary spending remain a constant percentage of GDP at the 2011 OECD projected levels. The green line assumes budget cuts of 1% of GDP for five years starting in 2012. The blue line assumes deeper cuts to entitlement programs, e.g. pension benefits, etc.

The report states:

Even more worrying is the fact that most of the projected deficits are structural rather than cyclical in nature. So, in the absence of immediate corrective action, we can expect these deficits to persist even during the cyclical recovery.

Under the baseline scenario, deficits spiral out of control for every western industrialized country under study. What is more depressing about this study is that, regardless of the level of budget cuts (with or without cuts to promises made about entitlement programs), debt to GDP continue to skyrocket for the major industrialized countries of Japan, UK and US.

Inflation is on the way
The authors then conclude that all roads seem to lead to inflation and a tight monetary policy cannot prevent its resurgence [emphasis mine]:

When the public reaches its limit and is no longer willing to hold public debt, the government would have to resort to monetisation. The result, consistent with the quantity theory of money, is inflation. And anticipation that this will happen may also lead to an increase in inflation today as investors reassess the risk from holding money and government bonds. In such an environment, fighting rising inflation by tightening monetary policy would not work, as an increase in interest rates would lead to higher interest payments on public debt, leading to higher debt, bringing the likely time of monetisation even closer.

Thus, in the absence of fiscal tightening, monetary policy may ultimately become impotent to control inflation, regardless of the fighting credentials of the central bank.

In other words, a Volcker style approach of tight monetary policy in order to wring inflationary expectations out of the system may be futile. Inflation is ultimately a fiscal phenomenon. What's more, bond market vigilantes won't solve the problem in time [emphasis mine]:

[B]ond traders are notoriously short-sighted, assuming they can get out before the storm hits: their time horizons are days or weeks, not years or decades. We take a longer and less benign view of current developments, arguing that the aftermath of the financial crisis is poised to bring a simmering fiscal problem in industrial economies to boiling point. In the face of rapidly ageing populations, for many countries the path of pre-crisis future revenues was insufficient to finance promised expenditure.

You can't grow your way out
The standard solution for believers of the free market is that organic growth, i.e. economic growth not from government stimulus, will eventually happen. We can grow our way out of trouble. The report believes that these structual deficits are so overwhelming that you can't:

We doubt that the current crisis will be typical in its impact on deficits and debt. The reason is that, in many countries, employment and growth are unlikely to return to their pre-crisis levels in the foreseeable future. As a result, unemployment and other benefits will need to be paid for several years, and high levels of public investment might also have to be maintained.

How to beat the American military without firing a shot
Fiscal deficits do matter and interest on debt can overwhelm spending priorities. Long-time analyst Richard Russell, publisher of the Dow Theory Letters since 1958, wrote the following words about a year ago:

The US national debt is now over $11 trillion dollars. The interest on our national debt is now $340 billion. This is about at 3.04% rate of interest. In ten years the Obama administration admits that they will add $9 trillion to the national debt. That would take it to $20 trillion. Let's say that by some miracle the interest on the national debt in 10 years will still be 3.04%. That would mean that the interest on the national debt would be $618 billion a year or over one billion a day. No nation can hold up in the face of those kinds of expenses. Either the dollar would collapse or interest rates would go through the roof.

If the BIS projections are correct and debt skyrockets, a 3% interest rate would be absurdly low. To put Russell's admittedly optimistic projection of $618 billion interest bill into perspective, that's roughly the same order of magnitude as the 2010 total reported military budget of $664 billion. In fact, characterized the US government as an insurance company (i.e. entitlement programs) with an army:

The basic picture of the federal government you should have in mind is that it's essentially a huge insurance company with an army; Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid — all of which spend the great bulk of their funds on making payments, not on administration — plus defense are the big items.

Bill Gross of PIMCO also came to a similar conclusion about the trajectory of the US fiscal position:

As a November IMF staff position note aptly pointed out, high fiscal deficits and higher outstanding debt lead to higher real interest rates and ultimately higher inflation, both trends which are bond market unfriendly. In the U.S. in addition to the 10% of GDP deficits and a growing stock of outstanding debt, an investor must be concerned with future unfunded entitlement commitments which portfolio managers almost always neglect, viewing them as so far off in the future that they don't matter. Yet should it concern an investor in 30-year Treasuries that the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the present value of unfunded future social insurance expenditures (Social Security and Medicare primarily) was $46 trillion as of 2009, a sum four times its current outstanding debt? Of course it should, and that may be a primary reason why 30-year bonds yield 4.6% whereas 2-year debt with the same guarantee yields less than 1%.

Is it time to "buy" inflation?
The authors of the BIS working paper believes that all roads lead to inflation. I concur with that view and inflation hedge vehicles such as hard assets, commodities and shares of commodity producers have their place in a portfolio. However, I have also expressed the belief that any commodity bull is likely to experience a high degree of volatility.

Here is the dilemma. Global economies are currently mired in a fragile slow-growth environment, but, as inflation could break out at any time. Investment hedges that perform well in a runaway inflationary environment will do poorly in a recessionary period and vice versa. You can get the picture right and get hurt really badly in the interim.

Consider the chart below showing the monthly price of gold during the 1970's. Even though the yellow metal rocketed from $35 in the early 1970's to $850 in January 1980, investors would have suffered a correction of 43% - and that's based on monthly prices. The peak-to trough correction in gold would have been even more using daily pricing.


The world faces a high degree of uncertainty about policy direction, which would result in gut-wrenching intermediate term market volatility. Consequently, I am operating with a base case scenario of several episodes of volatility with draw-downs of 50% or more in a multi-decade long secular commodity bull. Investors who don't have that level of tolerance for those kinds of losses need the necessary tools to be able to navigate these ups and downs.

Millennium & Copthorne Says Chinese JV Faces Difficulties - Update

(RTTNews) - Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited or MCHNZ, a subsidiary of Millennium & Copthorne Hotels plc or M&C (MLC.L), said Monday that its Chinese joint venture, held through its 34% interest in First Sponsor Capital Limited or FSCL, has encountered certain difficulties arising from the actions initiated by one of FSCL's Chinese joint venture partner Idea Valley Group Limited or IVGL founded by Cheung Ping Kwong.

FSCL owns 75% interest in Idea Valley Investment Holdings Ltd. or IVIHL, in which 20% interest is held by a company controlled by Cheung Ping Kwong. IVIHL in turn owns 100% interest in IVGL which is involved with property related businesses in Guangdong and Hainan, China.

Under a joint venture agreement in September 2007, Cheung was granted management rights over IVGL. In November 2009, Cheung was ousted from IVGL as chief executive officer citing his failure to meet the conditions in the JV deal and his conduct, but he refused to comply.

MCHNZ alleges that in March 2010, Cheung "through deceit" seized control of the company seals of IVGL group companies, terminated people appointed by FSCL, "unlawfully" took control of IVGL's office and denied IVIHL access to IVGL books.

IVIHL has noted that it has taken and is continuing to take all necessary measures to protect its interests in the IVGL group entities, including completing the relevant filings with the People's Republic of China authorities to confirm the removal of Cheung from his various IVGL group appointments and the voiding of the seals which are under his control.

M&C's effective interest in FSCL is 39.8%. Based on unaudited management accounts of the FSCL Group as at 28 February 2010, FSCL's carrying value of the net assets of and a loan to the Hainan Hotel Owning Company and the Dongguan Owning Company is US$47.8 million.

MLC.L shares are currently trading at 484.10 pence, down 10.30 pence or 2.08% on a volume of 36,994 shares on the London Stock Exchange.

Henderson Confirms Talks With SunTrust To Takeover Certain RidgeWorth Capital Businesses - Update

(RTTNews) - Investment management services provider Henderson Group plc (HGG.L) Monday confirmed that it is in discussions with regard to a potential acquisition of certain businesses of privately-held US asset manager RidgeWorth Capital Management Inc., owned by American banking company SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI).

Henderson, responding to media speculations, said it considers a range of strategic opportunities from time to time, and that the discussions with SunTrust regarding a possible transaction are ongoing. The company also added that there is no certainty that any transaction in connection with RidgeWorth Capital would proceed.

Earlier this month, US trade journal Pensions & Investments reported that Henderson is the leading bidder for the bulk of SunTrust Bank's money management arm RidgeWorth Capital.

Atlanta-based RidgeWorth Capital is a holding company with eight underlying money management boutiques, which oversee combined client assets of about $65 billion. Reports noted that RidgeWorth Capital's non-money market asset is worth around $36 billion. According to media reports, Henderson is not likely to acquire RidgeWorth Capital's Atlanta-based stable value and money market boutique StableRiver Capital Management LLC, which has over $28.2 billion in client assets.

HGG is currently trading on the London Stock Exchange at 148.70 pence per share, up 2.40 pence or 1.64%, on a volume of 289,779 shares. In the past 52-week period, the stock has been trading in a range of 76.75 pence to 148.80 pence.

In Friday's regular trading session, STI closed trading at $28.65 per share on the New York Stock Exchange. In the past 52-week period, the stock has been trading in a range of $12.76 to $29.41.

Stock Picks : Level 3 Communications, China Digital TV, GigaMedia

Level 3 Communications  has been trading in an ascending triangle pattern since June 2009 which is bullish, however the stock must break above $1.77 with conviction. If LVLT can break through this level, I expect to see a strong upside move. Stay tuned!!!

 

China Digital TV Holding - After a week of profit taking the stock on Friday closed at $7.35. The technical daily chart looks really bullish as the 50-day moving average has just crossed on top of 200-day moving average to form Golden Cross. A few more positive session could bring MACD back above 0 meaning bull market. The stock is holding up very well above $7,24, which leads me to believe there will be a big upside move soon. The stock needs to break through Tuesday's high of $7,68 for this upside move. STV is a fast moving stock, which means I will be watching it closely next week.

China Digital TV Holding Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides conditional access (CA) systems to digital television markets in the People's Republic of China. Its CA systems consist of smart cards and head-end software for television network operators, as well as terminal-end software for set-top box manufacturers, which enable digital television network operators to control the distribution of content and value-added services to their subscribers and block unauthorized access to their networks. The company licenses its set-top box design to set-top box manufacturers and sells advanced digital television application software, such as electronic program guides and subscriber management systems to digital television network operators. China Digital TV Holding Co. sells its CA systems and digital television application software to television network operators, including cable, satellite, and terrestrial television network operators and enterprises that maintain private cable television networks within their facilities. As of December 31, 2008, China Digital TV Holding Co. had installed CA systems at 200 digital television network operators in 27 provinces, autonomous regions, and centrally administered municipalities. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

 

GigaMedia has rested for a few days after a nice recent pop, and the volume behavior which has accompanied this action is excellent. The daily chart of the stock is showing a continuation pattern in this case to the upside although 3,24 offers a good resistance. $3.11 support is holding and GIGM bulls are trying to push through 3,24 barrier that corresponds to the top of the large bull flag formed since 3,34s highs. My suggestion is to focus on the break. In addition, the short interested has decreased to a nice number -15,55%.

GigaMedia Limited provides gaming software and services to the online gaming industry in the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau. It operates through two segments, Gaming Software and Service, and Online Game and Service. The Gaming Software and Service segment develops and licenses online poker and casino gaming software solutions and application services primarily for continental European markets. This segment offers online gaming software, online gaming management tools, and application and consulting services. The Online Game and Service segment operates play-for-fun games online, and provides related services for online game players. This segment offers a portfolio of online games, including MahJong, a traditional Chinese tile game; MMORPG, an Internet-based computer game; advanced casual games; and card, chance-based, and simple casual games. The company offers its products and services to online poker and casino markets. It has strategic alliance with Access China Holding Limited, Numen Soft Co. Ltd., and Gorilla Banana Entertainment Corp. GigaMedia Limited was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.

Other stocks to watch:

Earnings Announcements for Monday

Acme United - ACU
Adams Express - ADX
Agria Corporation - GRO
AIR INDS GROUP INC - AIRI.PK
ALCOA Inc - AA
AMCON Distributing - DIT
America West Resources, Inc. - AWSR.OB
AmeriServ Financial, Inc. - ASRV
Arrow Financial - AROW
ARTS WAY MFG INC - ARTW
ASAT Holdings Limited - ASTTY.PK
ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INVT TRUS - ACDSF.PK
ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST - ACTRF.PK
AsiaInfo Holdings - ASIA
BANK MUTUAL CORP NEW - BKMU
Biomerica - BMRA.OB
BKF Capital Group, Inc. - BKFG.PK
Brookline Bancorp - BRKL
C&D Technologies, Inc. - CHP
C-Chip Technologies Corporation - AVNY.PK
Cano Petroleum, Inc. - CFW
Capitol Bancorp - CBC
Century Bancorp A - CNBKA
CHINA SHENHUA ENERGY CO LTD - CUAEF.PK
CHINA SOLAR & CLEAN ENRGY SOLS - CSOL.OB
China Southern Airlines - ZNH
CINTEL CORP - CNCN.OB
Citizens First Bancorp - CTZN.PK
ClearPoint Business Resources Inc - CPBR.PK
CLST HLDGS INC - CLHI.PK
Comm Bancorp - CCBP
Community Trust - CTBI
Consolidated-Tomoka Land - CTO
Convera - CNVR.PK
CVB Financial - CVBF
DCB FINANCIAL CORP - DCBF.OB
DEI Holdings, Inc. - DEIX.PK
DPAC Technologies Corp. - DPAC.OB
Duckwall-ALCO Stores - DUCK
Dynacq Healthcare, Inc. - DYII
ECOTALITY INC - ETLE.OB
EMAK Worldwide Inc. - EMAK.PK
First South Bancorp - FSBK
FIRST ST FINL CORP FLA - FSTF.PK
Frischs Restaurants - FRS
FUQI INTERNATIONAL INC - FUQI
GEELY AUTOMOBILE HLDGS LTD - GELYY.PK
GLOBAL ENTMT CORP - GNTP.OB
GREEN BANKSHARES INC - GRNB
GREENHUNTER ENERGY INC - GRH
GUARANTY BANCORP DEL - GBNK
Heartland Express - HTLD
IDAHO FIRST BANK MCCALL IDAHOIDFB.OB
Immtech InternationalIMMP.PK
INDEX OIL & GAS INCIXOG.PK
INFOLOGIX INCIFLG
Intellipharmaceutics International Inc.IPCI
International Fight League, Inc.IFLI.OB
Interplay EntertainmentIPLY.OB
INTERVEST BANCSHARES CORPIBCA
IR Biosciences Holdings, Inc.IRBS.OB
Jaco ElectronicsJACO.PK
JADE ART GROUP INCJADA.OB
JB Hunt Transportation - JBHT
KINDER MORGAN MANAGEMENT LLC - KMR
Lakeland Industries - LAKE
Lattice, Inc. - LTTC.OB
Liquidmetal Technologies - LQMT.OB
Magal Security Systems - MAGS
Matrix Service - MTRX
Meridian Resource - TMR
Mesabi Trust CBI - MSB
Myers Industries - MYE
National Bankshares - NKSH
Omtool, Ltd. - OMTL.PK
OPTIONABLE INC - OPBL.OB
ORAMED PHARM INC - ORMP.OB
Orleans Homebuilders - OHBIQ.PK
P&F Industries - PFIN
PacWest Bancorp - PACW
Peoples Financial Corporation - PFBX
PET DRX CORPORATION - VETS
PICC PROPERTY AND CASUALTY CO - PPCCF.PK
Polycom Incorporated - PLCM
PowerVerde, Inc. - PWVI.OB
Preferred Bank - PFBC
PREMIER SVC BK RIVERSIDE CALIF - PSBK.OB
PT Arpeni Pratama Ocean Line Tbk - PTPMF.PK
RegeneRx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. - RGN
ROYAL STD MINERALS INC - RYSMF.OB
Saker Aviation Services, Inc. - SKAS.OB
SEDONA Corporation - SDNA.OB
Shun Tak Holdings Ltd - SHTGF.PK
Signalife Inc. - SGN
SINGAPORE EXCHANGE - SPXCF.PK
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited - SHI
State Bancorp, Inc. - STBC
Stella International Holdings Ltd - SLNLF.PK
STRATOS RENEWABLES CORPORATION - SRNW.PK
Suffolk Bancorp - SUBK
THAI STANLEY ELECTRIC THAILAND - TSETF.PK
THE BK HLDGS - TBHS.PK
The First Bancorp, Inc. - FNLC
THE9 LTD - NCTY
Track Data- TRAC.PK
TRM Corporation - AEMI.OB
USA Truck - USAK
Vasomedical Inc. - VASO.OB
Volt Information Sciences - VOL
Weis Markets - WMK
Winmark Corporation - WINA
WIRELESS AGE COMMUNICATIONS IN - WLSA.PK
Xcorporeal, Inc - XCRP.PK
Young Broadcasting - YBTVQ.PK
Z-Trim Holdings, Inc. - ZTHO.OB
Zanett, Inc. - ZANE
ZHONGHE CO LTD - ZHONF.PK

List of stocks whose chart is displaying a cup and handle formation

EGLE - Eagle Bulk Shipping
PHM - Pultegroup Inc
CIEN - CIENA Corporation
MDT - MEDTRONIC INC
PFG - PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL
TXT - TEXTRON INC
STT - STATE STREET CORP
ATML - Atmel Corporation
FLR - FLUOR CORP
TOL - TOLL BROTHERS INC
COV - Covidien Plc
KWK - Quicksilver Resources
VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceutical
CMS - C M S ENERGY CORP
CL - COLGATE-PALMOLIVE C
CB - CHUBB CORP
WM - WASTE MANAGEMENT INC
SCHN - Schnitzer Steel Ind.
EWU - WEBS United Kingdom
PRE - PARTNER RE LTD
CVH - COVENTRY HEALTH CAR
BEN - FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC
MTH - Meritage Homes
CTAS - Cintas Corporation
PSEC - Prospect Cptl Cp
NVE - SIERRA PACIFIC RESO
FMER - FirstMerit Corporation
LUK - LEUCADIA NATIONAL CORP
FOE - FERRO CORP
SWI - SolarWinds
ELNK - EarthLink, Inc.
HCC - H C C INSURANCE HLD
REGN - Regeneron Pharmaceutical
NTES - Netease.com, Inc.
SI - SIEMENS A G ADR
AGNC - American Capital Ag
TSU - Tim Participacs
ETY - Eaton Vance TxMngd
EVV - EATON VANCE LTD DUR
AEIS - Advanced Energy Ind
HMC - HONDA MOTOR CO LTD
HRBN - HARBIN ELECTRIC INC
ALSK - Alaska Communications
CAST - GREAT WALL ACQUISIT
JOE - ST JOE CORP
TWI - TITAN INTL INC
CASY - Casey's General Sto
ABD - ACCO BRANDS CORP
MEA - METALICO INC
AEA - ADVANCE AMER CSH AD
SVVS - Savvis Cp
TDS - Telephone & Data S
AXE - ANIXTER INTL INC
YZC - YANZHOU COAL MNG CO

Disclaimer: Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations. The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

What Will The S&P 500 Return Over The Next 10 Years?

*For reference when I refer to the market or stocks in this article I am referring to the S&P 500 not individual stocks.

I thought this article would be a good follow up on my market valuations article At the end of the article I stated that I expected future returns to be about 9.5% per annum, which is the average historic return for stocks.

In truth I expect future stock returns to be less than 9.5% per annum. The market is currently slightly over valued now. I stated that this is reasonable since stocks offer a much more attractive return than bonds due to low interest rates. However, eventually interest rates will get to levels of at least 4%( which is the minimum normal rate on interest rates) and that would justify a P/E closer to 15. I therefore expect the market to return less than 9.5% per year over the coming decade.

Four great minds have recently weighed in on the debate. The Wall Street Journal had an interesting article about Jeremy Siegel and Robert Shiller. Both are best selling authors of great books. Shiller wrote a fantastic book titled Irrational Exuberence, and Seigel wrote Stock For The Long Run. Both are great friends, but have differing views on future stock returns.

Shiller measures market valuations based on the average 10 year P/E. The average P/E since 1881 is 16. That number is currently above 21. According to Shiller's historical data with a P/E above 20 the market should produce returns that are barely positive over the next ten years. In addition, Robert Shiller is an expert on the housing market and sees some bearish signs in the housing market that might lead to a decline in stocks.

Jeremy Seigel argues with Robert Shiller's assessment. Seigel believes the numbers are skewed due to the unusually large write off financial firms took in 2008 and 2009. These numbers skews P/E numbers for the entire S&P index. For example, AIG wrote down $80 billion. Seigel believes this will skew S&P P/E ratio for the next ten years.

Excluding one time write off like AIGs', Seigel argues that the market is undervalued. Taking into account these one time extraordinary write off and charges Seigel believes the market is undervalued. He believes the market can return 10-12% returns for the stock market. In addition, Seigel expects low inflation in the future.

I will bring in two other great minds in part II of this article, and my personal view on future market returns.

Should You Invest In The Wind Energy Sector?

For those of you who have missed out on the largely uncorrected rally since March 2009 in the equity markets, finding value is becoming harder with each passing day. Even though most assets classes are already well off the bottom, we turn to the wind energy sector as it has not been impacted by the market recovery so far, particularly in 2010. Most stocks and ETFs in this sector have underperformed and thus might provide a viable entry point, given the strong fundamentals.

Wind energy is set to grow in the coming years, particularly in North America - led by the US and Canada. The overall wind energy market in the U.S. is valued at approximately USD $150 billion and is expected to grow even more rapidly. Growth is also expected in the Asian economies of India and China. The global installed wind energy capacity is projected to attain 2407 GW by 2012, with an average annual growth rate of 12.4 per cent.

Investments in the wind energy space should be directed towards regions that are set to benefit the most from the rapid expansion plans of wind energy as a power source.  The U.S. leads the world in annual wind capacity additions and holds the second position in cumulative capacity. However, the U.S. trails in wind power generation as a percentage of electricity consumption. This also indicates a likelihood of escalated growth in the domestic wind sector in the upcoming years.

Beta & Correlation calculated with regard to the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last year

The US also has plans to push for greener energy alternatives with an emphasis on wind, solar and nuclear sources. Approximately USD $84 billion has been allocated for energy efficiency enhancement and renewable energy production with an additional package of USD $32 billion for building an effective energy grid with inputs from renewable and alternative sources, as per the latest energy policies. However, the more substantive proposal, in terms of growth in the energy sector, is the proffer to launch a federal Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to ensure that 10% of the U.S. electricity comes from clean, home-grown renewable sources by 2012. The plan involves the extension of the Federal Production Tax Credit (PTC) for five years to promote the production of renewable energy.

Analysis of the wind power prices and wholesale power prices indicates that wind power has been competitive in the wholesale power market in the recent years. The average wind power prices are consistent or have remained at the lower end of the wholesale power price range since 2003.

If we were to come up with an investing thesis for the wind energy sector, it would be based on three strong rationales. First, the sector is expected to demonstrate slow but unyielding growth in the upcoming years based on the strength of the fundamentals. Secondly, the low beta of most of the instruments in the wind energy sector ensures it remains dictated by fundamentals mostly and not speculative activity. It is also largely insulated from market fluctuations (unlike the crude oil market). Thirdly, the wind energy instruments have not rebounded significantly from the recessionary lows as has most of the other sectors and investors with a long term appetite can still enter the sector at the moment at relatively inexpensive levels.

Major wind ETFs such as First Trust Global Wind Energy ( 13.69 +0.18 +1.33%), PowerShares Global Wind Energy ( 13.4601 +0.1401 +1.05%) and PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy  have performed better in comparison with the other sectors in the recession. Both PWND and FAN, the most widely traded wind ETFs, offer direct entry into the industry as the stakeholders include transmitters, distributors and equipment manufacturers.

As far as pure plays go:

NaiKun Wind Energy Group [NKW:TSX-V] is a Canada-based renewable energy company. It is focused on developing an offshore wind project in Hecate Strait off the north coast of British Columbia.

Vestas, which owns approximately one-fourth of the worldwide wind turbine market is listed on the Copenhagen exchange.

Suzlon Energy is the largest wind turbine manufacturer in Asia and the 5th largest worldwide. It is based in India and listed on the Bombay stock exchange.

Current value of investments of USD $100 made 1 year ago

What are your thoughts on alternative energy and the wind energy sector in particular? Do you own any alternative energy equities?

South Korean Market Trades Weak; Banks, Shipping Stocks Decline

(RTTNews) - The South Korean stock market is trading weak on Monday with investors indulging in some heavy selling in shipping and banking stocks. Despite fairly buoyant U.S. jobs data, a section of investors appear keen on taking some profits after recent solid gains.

The benchmark KOSPI index, which edged up to 1,731 in early trades but declined to around 1,711 subsequently, is currently down 3.5 points or 0.2% at 1,720.

Among bank stocks, Korea Exchange Bank is trading lower by 1.8%, KB Financial is down with a loss of 1.2% and Woori Finance is down 2.6%, while Shinhan Financial is down with a marginal loss.

In the shipping space, Daewoo Shipbuilding is trading 4.5% down, STX Pan Ocean is losing about 4%, Samsung Heavy Industries is down with a loss of 3.6% and Hyundai Heavy Industries is trading lower by 2.5%.

Among automobile stocks, Kia Motor and Hyundai Motor are up 2.5% and 2% respectively, while Ssangyong Motor is down with a loss of 6.8%.

Technology stocks, Hynix Semiconductor, Samsung Electronics and LG Display LCD are up 1%-2%. LG Electronics, however, is down in negative territory with a loss of about 1.2%.

Oil and telecommunications stocks are trading weak. Airliners and steel stocks are up with modest gains.

Among other markets in the Asia-Pacific region, Indonesia and Singapore are trading notably higher, while Malaysia and Japan are up with modest gains. Markets in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong are closed for Easter Monday, while those in China and Taiwan are closed on account of Tomb-Sweeping Day.

U.S. and European markets were closed on Friday due to Good Friday holiday.

U.S. payroll employment showed a notable increase in the month of March, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday, although the increase in jobs was somewhat smaller than economists had been anticipating.

The report showed that non-farm payroll employment increased by 162,000 jobs in March following a revised decrease of 14,000 jobs in February. Economists had expected employment to increase by about 184,000 jobs compared to the loss of 36,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

While the increase in employment fell short of economist estimates, it still marked the fastest pace of job growth since March of 2007.

Additionally, the Labor Department said that the unemployment rate held steady at 9.7% in March, unchanged from the previous month and in line with economist estimates. The increase in employment was partly due to job growth in the temporary help services and health care sectors, which added 40,000 jobs and 27,000 jobs, respectively.

Brown Warns Against Tory Deficit Cut Plans

(RTTNews) - Conservative plans to start cutting the deficit this year risked pushing back the U.K. economy into a double-dip recession, Prime Minister Gordon Brown has warned.

In a podcast recorded at Downing Street on Saturday, Brown said securing the economy's recovery is the biggest issue facing the country at present and that the economy needed time to regain strength.

Shadow chancellor George Osborne revealed last week that the Tories planned to make GBP 6 billion of savings this year to reverse part of the Labour's planned increase in national insurance contributions.

But the prime minister warned that prematurely taking money out of the economy risked doing more damage to the fragile recovery.

Drawing a comparison with England soccer star Wayne Rooney's recent injury, Brown said: "I know everyone will be hoping he's fit for the World Cup but after an injury you need support to recover, you need support to get back to match fitness, you need support to get back your full strength and then go on to lift the World Cup.

"So with the economy - we're not back to full fitness, we need to maintain support," he said.

"If we try and jump off the treatment table as if nothing had happened we'll do more damage to the economy - and frankly that means we risk a double-dip recession.

"I think that's a risk we can't afford to take."

The Conservatives recently received backing for their savings proposals from 37 high-profile business leaders across the U.K.

But Brown said a "vast majority of business people" - including the CBI, IMF and the Institute for Fiscal Studies - agreed with him that it would be "wrong" to take money out of the economy this year.

For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com

Copyright(c) 2010 RTTNews.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Indian Market May Edge Higher

(RTTNews) - A positive close on Wall Street Friday and an encouraging U.S. jobs report released over the weekend may help the Indian market open on a positive note Monday.

The Asian markets are trading higher this morning and the Dow futures are now up by 47 points. However, trading volume remains light across Asia as many markets, including Australia, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are closed on Monday.

The European markets will also remain closed on account of Easter holidays. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.7% on Thursday before closing for the the Good Friday holiday.

U.S. payroll employment showed a notable increase in the month of March, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday. The report showed that non-farm payroll employment increased by 162,000 jobs in March following a revised decrease of 14,000 jobs in February.

Economists had expected employment to increase by about 184,000 jobs compared to the loss of 36,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. While the increase in employment fell short of economist estimates, it still marked the fastest pace of job growth since March of 2007.

Closer home, earnings expectations from corporate India for the financial year 2011 and strong FII buying may also help improve investor sentiment. In March alone, foreign funds have invested about Rs.18,833 crore in stocks, the highest investment in a single month in six months, data shows.

Crude oil prices blasted through resistance and settled at a 17-month high of $84.87 a barrel, up about $1.11 a barrel on Thursday, boosted by data showing improved manufacturing activity in china as well as the euro-zone.

In Asian trading today, light, sweet crude oil for delivery in May are currently rising by about a percent to $85.62 a barrel on speculation global demand will increase as the world economy recovers from recession.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee may continue to strengthen against the greenback on expectations of strong domestic recovery and foreign fund inflows. The rupee closed near an 18-month high of 44.92 against the dollar on Thursday.

Last week, the benchmark 30-share Sensex rose by 0.27%, posting its eighth consecutive weekly gain, helped by a string of positive global data. The 50-share Nifty also advanced by 0.16% and focus on mid-cap and small-cap stocks increased with the mid-cap and small-cap indexes going up by 2.25% and 3.25%, respectively.